St. Louis @ San Francisco
St. Louis -102 over San Francisco

Posted on at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -102 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction -110 888Sport -110

St. Louis -102 over San Francisco

9:45 PM EST. The Giants rallied with a three-run ninth inning yesterday for a 5-4 walkoff win so the letdown angle is in play after a massive celebration. Furthermore, the price on the Giants, a team with four straight wins and a very good pitcher starting, looks soft to the unsuspecting and that, too, is an alarm bell to us. On paper, the pitching matchup seems to heavily favor the host Giants so why are they such a small price here? Chances are strong, the takeback on the Cardinals will get progressively better up until the first pitch.

A right ankle injury in April of last year cost Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, SF) two months, then he came back for two June starts and had to shut it down for the year due to the same injury. Best to disregard all this. 2019, 2021 shows what he can do when healthy, but aligning health and effectiveness is no easy feat. However, DeSclafani has only walked two batters all year in 24 innings with 21 walks issued to go along with his very nice 2.63 ERA. There’s nothing fluky here in DeSclafani’s profile but we have to question why he and the Giants are priced so low when the Cardinals starter comes in with a 6.55 after four starts?

Steven Matz (LHP - STL) has delivered some horrible results so far (6.55 ERA, 1.64 WHIP in 22 IP). He's someone who could bounce back quickly, though. His skills have been solid (3.27 xERA) and his stuff has been near electric (13.3% swing and miss rate, 18% last game). He's another pitcher whose luck has been bad early on with a true trifecta of bad fortune (41% hit rate, 63% strand rate and a BABIP of .373). Matz is pitching far better than his surface stats and that makes him and the Cards playable in prices within our range.

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Our Pick

St. Louis -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

San Francisco +101 over Chicago