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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

WREXHAM +220 (To Win in Full Time) over Sheffield United

Racecourse Ground – Wrexham, Wales

England Championship

United Kingdom Soccer

12:30 PM ET. Wrexham has long been defined by one of the strongest home-field advantages in the English pyramid. Anyone who has followed the club’s rise, popularized through the Ryan Reynolds–documentary, understands that the atmosphere in North Wales is not theoretical. It’s real and it’s loud when it matters.

The Red Dragons have been on a steady upward trajectory for several seasons, but the current campaign has stalled. Anchored in mid-table, Wrexham has not won in its last five matches and owns a modest 4-5-2 home record this season at the Racecourse Ground. Historically, this matchup has also leaned heavily one way—Wrexham has never beaten Sheffield United, with the Blades controlling the head-to-head narrative.

From a pure form perspective, it’s easy to see why the market leans toward Sheffield United. The Blades sit 18th in the table, climbing out of relegation danger and trending upward. Their recent form percentage sits around 75%, compared to Wrexham’s 42%, and they arrive off a statement 3–0 win over Birmingham—widely regarded as one of the Championship’s stronger sides. That result alone carries weight.

But this is exactly where recency bias takes hold. Just months ago, this fixture might have been priced very differently, potentially with Wrexham favored at home. Instead, a confluence of recent results and historical head-to-heads has pushed Wrexham out to a 200+ underdog on its own pitch. That swing is sharp—and telling.

Boxing Day football exists outside normal logic. It’s where narratives bend, crowds dictate tempo, and emotion levels the gap between sides on very different trajectories. While the form guide points one way, the situational setup points another. A home crowd primed for a holiday upset, a proud club overdue for a response, and a price inflated by recent memory all combine here. Wrexham winning in Wales on Boxing Day may shock the spreadsheets—but crazier things happen every year. At the price offered, we’re willing to find out.

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