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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Club Brugge +210 (To Win in Full Time) over Atalanta

Jan Breydel Stadium – Bruges, Belgium

UEFA Champions League

12:45 PM ET. If you’re looking for a scenic getaway along picturesque canals, Bruges, Belgium, is a top-tier destination. However, its football club—Club Brugge—isn’t held in such high regard on the Europeanstage. Domestically, Brugge is a powerhouse, consistently battling for the Belgian Pro League title. But once they step onto the Champions League stage, their reputation is one of early exits and lopsided defeats against the tournament’s heavyweights.

Case in point: their last Champions League match, a 3-1 defeat at Manchester City on January 29th, where Brugge was a massive +1200 underdog. Since then, they haven’t exactly inspired confidence. They lost to Royal Antwerp, drew Genk as heavy favorites, and scraped out a 1-0 win over Leuven—far from a ringing endorsement. In short, Brugge hasn’t impressed at any level recently, while Atalanta, at a glance, appears to be surging.

Atalanta, sitting third in Serie A, comes off a 5-0 demolition of Hellas Verona and has outscored opponents 15-4 in their last six matches. They even managed a draw against Barcelona in Spain, further fueling the market’s perception of them as a force. But dig deeper, and Atalanta's résumé is far less impressive than it appears.

This is a team that feasts on the weak. Against top-tier competition in Italy, Atalanta has struggled mightily. In their last six matches against teams in the upper half of the Serie A table, they have zero wins. More tellingly, against teams currently in Champions League qualification spots—Napoli, Inter, and Lazio—they’ve lost twice and drawn once. The pattern is clear: when Atalanta faces real competition, they stumble.

That brings us to Brugge. Despite their recent struggles, they are a club accustomed to competing at the highest level of European football. They are far closer in quality to the Napolis, Lazios, and Inters of the world than to the bottom-tier teams Atalanta has been running up the score on. Yet the market is treating Brugge like a featherweight punching above its weight, when in reality, it’s Atalanta stepping up in class here.

Simply put, Atalanta’s inflated stock has created an overvalued number, while Brugge is being grossly undervalued on home soil. This is a textbook overreaction, and we’re happy to capitalize. Brugge has no business being priced as this significant of a home underdog, and we trust they’ll make that clear. We’re backing The Club to get it done in ninety.

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