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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Hyde United +225 (To Win in Full Time) over ASHTON UNITED

Hurst Cross – Ashton-under-Lyne, England

Northern Premier League

United Kingdom Soccer

10:00 AM ET..Boxing Day in the United Kingdom is the British equivalent of Christmas Day in the NBA, March Madness, or New Year’s Day in college football—a time when emotions run high and outcomes regularly defy logic. It’s also a place where rivalries renew and when the unthinkable happens.

While Ashton United and Hyde United may not be household names, their rivalry carries the same ferocity as far more famous derbies in the Greater Manchester area. Both compete in the Northern Premier League, and both are rooted in Tameside, just east of Manchester, separated by little more than a short bus ride. The Red Robins and the Tigers have decades of shared history, resentment, and local pride wrapped into one volatile matchup.

Recent history heavily favors Ashton, and that’s the key to this price. Hyde haven’t beaten Ashton in nearly three years, are winless in the last four meetings, and have managed just one victory in their last six matches overall. On top of that, the Tigers must travel to Hurst Cross, traditionally a difficult venue for visitors. Ashton sit seventh in the table, hovering just outside playoff territory, while Hyde are scrapping to avoid relegation. All of this feeds the perception that Ashton is the “safe” side.

But derbies—and especially Boxing Day derbies—rarely follow safe narratives. Dig deeper and the gap isn’t as wide as it looks. The last three meetings between these sides have all ended level: a 2–2 draw two years ago followed by consecutive 1–1’s in last year’s campaign. Even when Ashton has won during this stretch, it’s been by the thinnest of margins. Hyde haven’t been blown off the pitch; they’ve stayed competitive, disruptive, and dangerous

That’s why Hyde United is live here. Rivalry intensity, historical closeness, and the Red Robins’ inflated perception combine to create value. At better than two-to-one odds, the Tigers pulling off the upset is far more plausible than the odds suggest. On Boxing Day, with pride on the line, we’re backing the Tigers to roar at Hurst Cross.   

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