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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

BLACKBURN ROVERS +155 (To Win in Full Time) over Sheffield United

Ewood Park - Blackburn, England

England Championship

United Kingdom Soccer

2:45 PM ET. Similar to what we saw with Wigan on Saturday or Bolton last week at Huddersfield, Blackburn is priced at a number that raises eyebrows despite recent trends. The Rovers have yet to win a game at Ewood Park this season — a ground where, historically, they’re tough to beat. Blackburn also hasn’t defeated Sheffield United in their last three meetings. Naturally, that begs the question: who would back Blackburn here, and yet, the Rovers are lined as the favorites to win in ninety. That’s the tell.

Let’s not forget one more key ingredient — narrative. The Blades have lived on heartbreak in recent years, falling just short of promotion to the Premier League in the most absurd of fashions. The storyline here is one of redemption, can the Blades finally make the leap back into the top flight? That's what you heard in August, but the reality is less flattering: Sheffield United sits buried in the drop zone, struggling to find consistency or form. On paper, this matchup looks like a turning point for the Blades — a chance to stabilize, string together results, and claw back into contention to perhaps steal a final playoff berth in the Spring. It starts here, that's what you will hear here, but the number says otherwise.

When the market leans toward a team that hasn’t won at home and has been dominated in this matchup historically, it’s not by accident — it’s a signal. Ewood Park has been due for a result, and this is the perfect stage for it. The price tells us where the value lies. If Blackburn had any semblance of a presence in their own stead, they'd require vigorish for action in this spot. But they don't and that's where the equity is dripping. Blackburn gets three at home, finally.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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