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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

WIGAN ATHLETIC +155 (To Win in Full Time) over Port Vale

The Brick Community Stadium at Robin Park – Wigan, England

England League One United Kingdom Soccer

10:00 AM ET. You could call this “The Richard Bean Cup.” The long-time Wiganer is a devoted Port Vale supporter, and when the Valiants come to town, his house is divided. But we’re not backing the Latics by way of sentiment or narrative like many may do with the visitors here. Port Vale enters this one unbeaten in their last four outings and 6–1 over their last seven fixtures. Their lone defeat? A cup loss to Arsenal — the Premier League leaders — hardly anything to hang their head about. The Valiants’ stock is soaring.

Meanwhile, Wigan hasn’t won in their last six contests and have dropped four straight at home outright. Naturally, the instinct is to ride the hot hand and back the side in better form — and right now, that’s clearly Port Vale. The trends reinforce the notion: Port Vale is 3-1-1 in their last five meetings with Wigan. Everything screams Vale. And yet, the Latics are the favorite here. That’s the clue. No need to dive into X’s and O’s — the number tells the story.

The oddsmakers know Vale looks tempting at +180 and that Wigan carries no market appeal. When a team with all the negative optics is lined as the chalk, it’s not by accident; it’s an invitation for contrarians. As purveyors of value this is the type of scenario that we mine for. The market is showing its hand. We’ll play it accordingly. Wigan Athletic in ninety.

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