Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Milllwall +110 (To Win in Full Time) over Watford

The Den – London, England

England Championship

3:30 PM ET. This line sticks out like a sore thumb. Watford have yet to win away from Vicarage Road, picking up just a single point in two road matches while looking timid in both. Their record is padded by a soft early slate at home, but the minute they step outside their comfort zone, they’re exposed. Now they’re being asked to walk into The Den — one of the most unforgiving venues in English football — and suddenly the market is giving you plus money on Millwall. That isn’t coincidence.

The knock on the Lions is obvious: 0-0-2 at home and not a single goal to show for it. That stat is driving the market hesitation, but it also creates the opportunity. Oddsmakers know if Millwall had managed even one decent result on their own turf, this number wouldn’t be anywhere near plus money. Instead, they’re dangling a Watford side that can’t travel, banking on the public buying into Millwall’s barren home form.

This is a trap we’re happy to step around. The Den’s reputation isn’t hype — it’s a genuine edge, especially against a lightweight traveler like Watford. The Lions are being priced as if they’re a bottom feeder when they’re not. Millwall are the undervalued side here, and we’ll gladly step in on them at this number.

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