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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Utah -1½ +180 over Toronto

7:00 PM EST. The Toronto Maple Leafs are finally home after a four-game swing through Western Canada and Seattle, but don't confuse being home with being ready to play. There's a difference between returning to your own building and returning mentally from a road trip. Toronto has Edmonton, Calgary, Seattle and Vancouver in the rearview mirror, with Montreal coming to town Saturday for Hockey Night in Canada. That matchup will dominate the conversation in Toronto for the next several days. Utah? Not exactly the opponent that gets everyone's blood pumping. This is a lousy scheduling spot for the Leafs, and the timing couldn't be much better for the visitors. The first game home after a lengthy trip is often a dangerous one, particularly when a much more attractive opponent is waiting in the wings.

There's also a compelling reason to like Utah that has nothing to do with the schedule. Utah ranks third in the NHL in even-strength puck possession time, while Toronto sits 24th. That's an enormous disparity, and it's not some obscure statistic invented by a guy with a spreadsheet and too much free time. Teams that spend more time with the puck spend less time chasing it, defending, and relying on their goaltender to bail them out. Utah has been controlling the flow of games, while Toronto has been getting results without consistently controlling the play. That arrangement can work for a while, but it's a difficult way to make a living. Against a disciplined opponent that rarely gives away possession, Toronto could spend an uncomfortable amount of this evening watching Utah operate in its end.

The interesting part is the price. Utah is already favored on the moneyline, so the oddsmakers aren't exactly hiding which team it prefers. However, laying a goal and a half brings us back to +180, and that's where the opportunity lies. Obviously, winning by two is a different proposition from simply winning, and an overtime victory won't cash this ticket. But there's more than one route to a two-goal margin, including the empty-netter when Toronto is trailing late and desperately trying to force overtime. We're getting nearly 2-to-1 on a team that controls possession against an opponent returning from a long trip with a Saturday night date against Montreal looming. Toronto has the bigger names and the brighter spotlight. Utah has the better situation, the puck-possession advantage, and a price worth taking.

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