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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Edmonton +108 over N.Y. Rangers

6:00 PM EST. The Edmonton Oilers are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight, and apparently that's enough to make the New York Rangers the favorite. Never mind that Edmonton is 10-2-2, undefeated on the road, and playing some of its best hockey in years. The Oilers played yesterday afternoon, so this isn't a case of squeezing two games into 24 hours. Furthermore, it's November 1, not the middle of February when fatigue starts taking a serious toll. Winning also has a funny way of keeping energy levels high. Meanwhile, the Rangers haven't played in five days, and that much rest this early in the season isn't necessarily an advantage. Five days without a game can disrupt timing and rhythm, particularly for a team that was already struggling. New York has lost three straight and surrendered 18 goals in the process. There's a legitimate possibility the Rangers come out looking like they haven't played in five days, because, well, they haven't.

What's particularly impressive about Edmonton is the transformation of its defensive game under Tom Babcock. These aren't the same Oilers who needed to score nine goals because they were perfectly capable of allowing eight. Edmonton is coming off consecutive 4-0 shutouts against Calgary and the Islanders, and the improvement goes well beyond two impressive scores. The Oilers are playing with considerably more structure, limiting dangerous scoring opportunities, and no longer depending exclusively on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to rescue them every night. McDavid is still putting up ridiculous numbers, the power play remains lethal, and now the team is actually defending. That's a dangerous combination. The Rangers, on the other hand, are struggling defensively and dealing with uncertainty in goal. Edmonton is expected to start Matt Tomkins, which introduces some risk, but New York isn't exactly enjoying a goaltending advantage of its own.

The market is putting considerable emphasis on Edmonton's back-to-back situation and New York's five days of rest. We're placing considerably more value on how these teams are actually playing. The Oilers are winning, defending, scoring, and carrying momentum into Madison Square Garden, while the Rangers are trying to rediscover their game after an extended break. Edmonton has yet to lose on the road, and its improved defensive play gives it more ways to win than in previous seasons. We're getting the better team at a plus price simply because it played hockey yesterday. That's a trade-off we'll gladly accept. Sometimes the team that's been sitting around for five days is the one that needs 20 minutes to remember how to play.

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