Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo -1½ +170 over San Jose 10:30 PM EST. San Jose is playing its first home game after a six-game road trip tonight, back in its own building for the first time in a while, and that first night home is a tough one. The Sharks closed the trip with a loss in Boston, and now they walk into their own rink against a Buffalo team catching them in exactly that window. The spot is the first game back, and the price has not caught up to it. The even-strength gap is the widest on the board tonight. Buffalo owns a 51.65 xGF% at five-on-five while San Jose sits at 38.63, which means the Sharks are getting caved in at even strength on a nightly basis and the Sabres are the team controlling play. That is a big enough gap to build a play on all by itself, and it is the reason this game is about margin rather than just winning. San Jose is also without Alexander Wennberg, which thins out the middle of the ice for a team that already struggles to keep up at five-on-five. The moneyline at -142 is a minus price and not playable, so the -1½ at +170 is how you play Buffalo here. Winning by two is part of the bet, and that is fine: with this kind of five-on-five edge, the paths to a two-goal win are there, through the third period and through the empty net late. The price pays plus money for a favorite that should be controlling this game from the opening puck drop.

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