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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Edmonton +120 over Utah

10:00 PM EST. This is the continuous-travel fade, and Utah is the poster team for it: tonight is the Mammoth's ninth straight game in a different city. The run reads home, Columbus, New York, New Jersey, Boston, Buffalo, home, Edmonton, home — never two games in the same building, never a chance to settle, and the last leg was a flight to Edmonton on Thursday and straight back to Salt Lake City for tonight. Teams can survive that for a while on adrenaline. By game nine, it shows up in the third period.

Full disclosure, because Utah's 5-on-5 numbers are excellent — a 62.17 expected-goals share and 56.32 Corsi — and the Mammoth beat Edmonton 4-2 in Edmonton on Thursday on the strength of two power-play goals. That is exactly why this spot works at a price: Utah's stock has never been higher, they are favored at home against McDavid and Draisaitl, and the casual bettor sees Thursday's result and stops thinking. What they miss is that Edmonton gets Zach Hyman, Colton Dach and Jake Walman back tonight, that Thursday's shots were even at 24, and that this is a rested, angry Oilers team getting its revenge spot 48 hours later against an opponent that has been living out of a suitcase for three weeks.

Edmonton's own profile comes with a warning label — its goals share of 62.50 is built on a wildly unsustainable 32.14 high-danger shooting percentage, and expected starter Tristan Jarry is nobody's idea of a sure thing. We are not claiming the Oilers are some juggernaut. We are claiming that +120 on this team, in this spot, against a club playing its ninth straight game in a ninth different city, is a price that does not reflect the situation. Situations like this are why we built the list.

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