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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +138 over Montreal 

6:30 PM EST. Montreal is a significant favorite here and on the surface it's easy to see why. The Canadiens are rested at home while Buffalo is skating the second half of a back-to-back after hosting Florida on Monday afternoon. But that scheduling edge is doing a lot of heavy lifting for a Habs team that hasn't shown it can actually exploit it, and at +130 the Sabres are the side with all the value. Buffalo just hung five goals on the Panthers in a 5-3 win, with Tage Thompson (four goals, seven points through six games) and Owen Power (seven points) driving the bus, and that offence is coming into the Bell Centre hot.

Here's how Buffalo gets it done: at even strength, where this game will almost certainly be decided. Both of these power plays are running at a miserable 5.9 percent (1-for-17 apiece), so special teams cancel out and it comes down to five-on-five finishing. That's a problem for Montreal. The Habs are averaging just 2.8 goals per game, rank 18th offensively, and were blanked in regulation by Detroit last time out before escaping in a shootout. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield haven't carried this group early, and a team that can't score can't punish tired legs.

Then there's the crease, which is unsettled in Montreal — though not quite the Buffalo edge it first appears. Jakub Dobes is the expected starter and his early-season numbers are rough (4.50 goals-against, .856 save percentage), which looks awkward next to Jacob Fowler's 30-save shutout against Detroit two nights ago. But here's the twist: Dobes is 3-0-0 lifetime against Buffalo with a 2.00 GAA and .937 save percentage, while Fowler lost his only career start versus the Sabres. If Dobes gets the net, he owns this matchup — and with Samuel Montembeault sidelined, there's no safe fallback if it goes the other way. Buffalo, meanwhile, is expected to turn back to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who steadied things in relief on Monday by stopping 13 of 14 after Colten Ellis got the hook. The Sabres only allow about 21 shots a night, so the structure is there — they just need average goaltending, and Luukkonen's relief outing suggests he's found it.

The back-to-back is real, and so is a notable absence: Rasmus Dahlin took a shot to the upper body on Monday, didn't travel to Montreal, and is day-to-day — that's Buffalo's captain and top defenseman out of the lineup. But the market has still overcorrected. Montreal is 1-2 as a moneyline favourite this season and has dropped three of five overall, and laying -155 with a team averaging under three goals a night is a tough sell. Buffalo has the hotter top line, with Owen Power driving play from the blue line in Dahlin's absence, the healthier scoring touch, and a goaltender trending the right way — all at a plus-money price.

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