Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Dallas -1½ +165 over Pittsburgh
7:00 PM EST. Reports of the Dallas Stars' demise were apparently a little premature. After opening the season with two losses, the Stars responded by outscoring San Jose and Buffalo by a combined 9-0. That's nine goals scored, none allowed, and a pretty convincing reminder that Dallas remains one of the NHL's most dangerous teams.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is about to discover that the NHL schedule doesn't give a damn how tired you are. The Penguins played last night, suffered an overtime loss, and now have to get right back at it against a rested Dallas team that's beginning to find its stride. This is Pittsburgh's second game in as many nights, third in four days and fourth in six. That's a lot of hockey in a short period, particularly for a team that just had to work overtime and has several important players who aren't exactly fresh out of junior hockey.
The fatigue factor becomes even more significant when considering the opponent. Dallas has the depth to roll four lines, apply sustained pressure and force Pittsburgh to defend for extended stretches. That's a difficult assignment under normal circumstances, never mind when your legs are still recovering from the previous night's overtime session. The Penguins aren't getting much of a chance to catch their breath, and the Stars are hardly the ideal opponent when you're running on fumes.
Mikko Rantanen is certainly doing his part for Dallas. The Finnish superstar was involved in all four goals against Buffalo on Thursday, collecting a goal and three assists. He's now factored into five consecutive Stars goals, which is another way of saying that opposing defenses might want to consider keeping an eye on him. Just a suggestion.
Pittsburgh still has Sidney Crosby, and as long as No. 87 is wearing a Penguins sweater, this franchise will command respect. But Crosby's greatness doesn't erase the disadvantages of a demanding schedule, nor does it magically restore tired legs. Dallas has superior depth, excellent goaltending and an offense capable of punishing defensive mistakes. Those advantages become even more pronounced against an opponent playing on consecutive nights.
The price is what makes this particularly attractive. Rather than paying a premium on the Dallas moneyline, we're taking the puck line at +165. Pittsburgh's scheduling disadvantage creates an opportunity for the Stars to establish control, and their offensive depth gives them a legitimate chance to create some separation on the scoreboard.
Dallas is finding its stride, Oettinger is locked in, and Rantanen is playing like somebody stole his lunch money. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is being asked to play another demanding game on tired legs after an overtime loss less than 24 hours earlier. That's a lousy spot for the Penguins and an attractive one for the Stars. We'll take Dallas to win by two or more at a very appealing price.
Our Pick
Dallas -1½ +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)
