Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Utah  +110 over New Jersey

7:00 PM EST. Two or three games into an NHL season is precisely when results can create some ridiculous perceptions, and we're going to try to take advantage of one here. New Jersey is 1-1 after needing overtime to beat Philadelphia and then getting buried 6-0 by the Islanders. Two games against two perceived weak opponents and the Devils have one narrow victory and one six-goal loss to show for it. Looks ugly. It hasn't been.

Pay less attention to results and much more attention to performance and your hockey handicapping will improve dramatically. New Jersey has spent enormous stretches of its first two games with the puck in the offensive zone. The Devils fired 37 shots at the Islanders and lost 6-0 because one goaltender couldn't stop a beach ball while the other stopped everything thrown at him. That's hockey. Sometimes the scoreboard tells you what happened without telling you a damn thing about how it happened.

Now compare the perception surrounding Utah. The Mammoth are 2-1, scored 10 goals in their first two games and have a power play clicking at an absurd 75%. You'll have to excuse us while we crap our pants.

Utah's two victories came 6-0 over Chicago and 4-1 over Columbus. The Blackhawks are 0-3 and currently look like they couldn't hit a cow's ass with a shovel. Columbus hasn't exactly inspired anyone, either. Beat up two weak opponents, score five power-play goals in the process and suddenly Utah looks like an early-season juggernaut.

We're not buying it.

That 75% power play is perhaps the best example of why early-season numbers can be so misleading. Utah is 6-for-8. Nobody sustains anything remotely resembling that. Meanwhile, New Jersey's special teams haven't gotten going yet. Put those two tiny samples next to each other and Utah looks vastly superior. Give it some time and those numbers are going to come screaming back toward reality.

New Jersey's underlying play is far more interesting to us than its 1-1 record. This is a fast, skilled team that wants possession, wants to attack and has spent plenty of time doing exactly that. The finish hasn't been there yet, but we're not going to wait until Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and the rest of this offense start filling the net before stepping in. Once the goals arrive, the discount disappears with them.

Jake Allen gets the start after New Jersey's goaltending disaster against the Islanders, and the Devils return home for the first game of a three-game homestand. This is precisely the type of spot where we're willing to forgive the scoreboard and trust what we've been watching.

The market sees a Devils team coming off a 6-0 loss and a Utah team that has outscored Chicago and Columbus 10-1. We see New Jersey's stock down after a game in which the score badly misrepresented its performance and Utah's stock inflated by two wins over questionable opposition and special-teams numbers that aren't remotely sustainable. We'll take the depressed asset and we'll take it aggressively.

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