Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
San Jose -1½ +210 over Los Angeles
10:00 PM EDT. We're certainly not going to overreact to one game, but we're also not going to completely ignore it. Los Angeles went into Colorado for its opener and got buried 8-4. Giving up eight in Game 1 doesn't define a season, but it sure as hell doesn't inspire confidence either. Colorado scored four times on five power-play opportunities, and the Kings now remain on the road for Game 2. Rather than lay a big moneyline price with the Sharks, we'll swing for the bigger return and lay the -1½ at +210.
San Jose opened its season right here at SAP Center and knocked off a very good Florida team 4-3 in overtime. Will Smith scored twice, Macklin Celebrini had three assists and Mason Marchment scored in his Sharks debut. There's a lot to like about what the Sharks have assembled. Celebrini, Smith and Marchment give them legitimate high-end offensive talent, and this isn't the rebuilding San Jose team that could be dismissed every night. The Sharks improved dramatically last season, and there are plenty of reasons to believe another step forward is coming.
The Kings, meanwhile, are going through some substantial changes. Anze Kopitar is gone, there's a new coach behind the bench and several new pieces are being worked into the lineup. There's still plenty of talent here, but allowing eight goals immediately raises the question we're interested in exploiting tonight: how quickly can this team get its defensive structure and goaltending settled? After getting lit up in Colorado, San Jose isn't exactly the opponent we'd choose to figure it out against.
And there's a nice little scheduling component here, too. San Jose hasn't gone anywhere. They opened the season at home, beat Florida and get to stay right there for Game 2. Los Angeles opened in Colorado, got its ass handed to it 8-4 and now travels to San Jose for the second game of its season before finally heading home. It's only October 3, so we're not making too much out of travel or momentum, but we'd certainly rather be backing the team that's comfortable at home and coming off a win than the one that just surrendered eight and is still on the road.
Most importantly, we're getting +210 to turn a San Jose victory into a two-goal victory. If we're right that the Kings remain vulnerable defensively, there's no reason to settle for the shorter price. San Jose has enough offensive talent to put another crooked number on the board, and Los Angeles just provided eight reasons to believe that's possible.
Our Pick
San Jose -1½ +210 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.20)
