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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Jersey +115 over Ottawa

7:00 PM EST. Ottawa rolls into this one off a convincing win and with a playoff spot already secured, so that’s exactly why we should focus on the Devils. The Senators have been a strong offensive group all season—top 10 in scoring and lethal on the power play at over 23%—but motivation becomes a real question once a team has clinched. We’ve seen it time and time again in this league: that edge softens just enough. Combine that with a shaky .875 team save percentage and a tendency to give up quality chances, and suddenly this isn’t the same locked-in Ottawa squad the market is pricing. This is a team that can score, yes—but also one that can trade chances when the intensity dips

New Jersey, on the other hand, is sitting in that dangerous spot—still playing with purpose and a point to prove. The Devils’ numbers don’t jump off the page, but the underlying profile tells a different story. They rank top five in shots per game, which screams opportunity, and their sub-10% shooting percentage suggests they’ve been snakebitten more than anything. That’s a classic buy-low signal. With players like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt driving play, this offense has more upside than the raw totals show. If they generate their usual volume against an Ottawa team that may not be fully engaged defensively, the breakthrough can come quickly.

This is where situational awareness for us kicks in. Ottawa has already accomplished what they needed to—they can afford to exhale. New Jersey can’t. At home, as a small underdog, with a clear edge in urgency and a sneaky positive regression profile offensively, this is the kind of spot we should be circling. It won’t be perfect, it won’t be clean—but it doesn’t have to be. It just has to cash. Back the Devils on the moneyline and take advantage of a number that’s giving too much respect to a team that might not be fully dialed in tonight.

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