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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota -1½ +105 over Toronto

7:30 PM EST This wager is more about fading the Toronto Maple Leafs than backing the Minnesota Wild, but Minnesota is still a very live side in this spot. The Wild will play their fourth straight home game, and while it may look like their form has dipped after losing three of their last four, that record is misleading. Two of those losses came in overtime. Prior to that, they lost 3–2 in OT in Colorado against the Avalanche, one of the league’s elite teams. Minnesota also owns impressive recent wins, including a road victory in Vegas and a convincing 5–1 win over Tampa Bay. So while the record may not show it, the Wild are playing much better than it appears on paper.

Now we turn to the Maple Leafs, who come into this game in rough shape both physically and mentally. Toronto played last night in Buffalo, where they spent most of the night chasing the puck for 60 minutes, eventually losing 3–2 in overtime after being outshot 34–17. That game now puts Toronto in the difficult spot of playing their third game in four nights and the tail end of a back-to-back, never an easy situation, especially for a team that already looks worn down.

The bigger issue is Toronto’s overall form. Since March 2nd, this will be the Maple Leafs’ eighth game in just 13 days, and during that stretch they have only one win, a fortunate 6–4 comeback against Anaheim after trailing 3–1. The rest of the recent results paint a pretty ugly picture: 5–1 loss to Florida, 5–2 loss to Ottawa, 6–2 loss to the Rangers, 5–2 loss to Tampa, and a 3–1 loss in Montreal. These haven’t just been losses — they’ve been weak, lifeless performances where Toronto has been outplayed for long stretches.

Add in the fact that Auston Matthews is out, the team’s confidence appears shaky, and fatigue is setting in, and this sets up perfectly for Minnesota. The Wild are rested, motivated, and playing at home against a Maple Leafs team that looks like it’s running on fumes. With the situational edge firmly on Minnesota’s side and plus money for the Wild to win by two goals, we’ll take Minnesota -1½ (+105).

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