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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +100 over Florida  

7:00 PM EST Buffalo enters at 33-19-6 overall and 11-4-3 within the division, while Florida sits at 30-25-3 and just 7-9-1 against Atlantic opponents. That’s a meaningful split in a game where familiarity matters. The Sabres are also in far better current form, going 7-2-1 over their last 10 while averaging 3.9 goals per game and allowing just 2.5. When you combine strong recent play with plus-money pricing, the value conversation becomes straightforward — you’re getting the hotter, more consistent team at an underdog number.

Offensively, Buffalo has more reliable firepower right now. They rank among the league’s better scoring teams at 3.3 goals per game, with players like Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch driving a balanced attack. Thompson has been especially impactful of late, and the Sabres have produced 39 goals over their last 10 contests. Florida, meanwhile, is averaging just 3.1 goals in that same span and has been far less efficient defensively, surrendering over three goals per game. Sergei Bobrovsky was excellent in the Panthers’ recent win, but zooming out, Florida’s defensive metrics and recent third-period struggles suggest vulnerability — particularly against a team that rolls multiple scoring lines and is confident offensively.

Situational trends only strengthen the case. Buffalo has consistently delivered as an underdog, winning eight of its last nine in that role following a road victory and covering the puck line in 12 straight as a dog. Florida, on the other hand, has struggled to reward bettors as a home favorite after wins. The Sabres already beat the Florida Panthers 5-3 in the most recent head-to-head meeting, and while the Panthers have had long-term success in this series, current trajectory matters more than historical dominance. With Buffalo playing cleaner hockey defensively, generating more consistent offense, and offering plus-money value, the sharper side in tonight’s matchup is the Sabres to win outright.

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