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Posted at 11:30AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +135 over Dallas

8:00PM EST St. Louis finds itself in a familiar but favorable position heading into this rematch: at home, competitive, and undervalued by the market. The Blues have quietly turned Enterprise Center into a difficult building again, picking up points in five straight home games and consistently playing tighter, more structured hockey in front of their crowd. The last meeting in Dallas was decided in the final minute, and that razor-thin margin matters when evaluating tonight’s number. With little separating these teams head-to-head, home ice carries real weight, especially for a Blues group that has shown better energy and defensive commitment in this setting.

Dallas still owns the higher ceiling, but recent form suggests volatility rather than dominance. The Stars’ five-on-five offense has cooled noticeably over the past few weeks, and their scoring swings wildly from game to game. That inconsistency is magnified on the road, where execution hasn’t been as sharp. Add in goaltending that hasn’t lived up to reputation lately, and Dallas starts to look more like a team relying on talent to eventually bail them out rather than one dictating play shift to shift.

From a value perspective, backing St. Louis makes sense because the gap between these teams is smaller than the odds imply. The Blues don’t need to outclass Dallas—they just need to stay within themselves, lean on home-ice familiarity, and capitalize on a Stars team still searching for rhythm. In a matchup that profiles as another one-goal game, taking St. Louis to win outright offers a stronger return than siding with a road favorite whose recent performance hasn’t matched its name recognition.

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