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Posted at 11:30AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +120 over Buffalo

7:00 PM EST. The market continues to overrate Buffalo’s recent win streak while overlooking how those wins have been achieved. The Sabres’ surge has been driven by finishing efficiency rather than strong defensive play, and that’s a dangerous profile to lay a price with long term. Philadelphia, meanwhile, remains a fundamentally sound even-strength team that plays a tighter, more repeatable game, making them a live underdog whenever the line implies they’re clearly inferior.

From a matchup perspective, Buffalo’s defensive weaknesses matter here. They continue to allow high-danger chances at a rate that doesn’t align with their recent results, and those cracks tend to show up against teams willing to forecheck and force extended zone time. Philadelphia doesn’t rely on rush scoring or unsustainable shooting spikes; they generate offense through pressure, second chances, and volume, which is exactly the style that can neutralize Buffalo’s skill edge.

This ultimately comes down to price sensitivity. Buffalo may very well be the more talented roster, but the gap between these teams is not large enough to justify Philadelphia sitting at +120. In games like this, bettors don’t need the underdog to be better — they need them to be competitive, structured, and capable of capitalizing on mistakes. With Philadelphia checking those boxes and the market shading too far toward Buffalo’s momentum, the Flyers represent the sharper side at this number.

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