Pinnacle    +155     BET365  +155    Sportsinteraction  +155   888port  +155

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Pittsburgh +155 over Toronto

7:30 PM ET. OT included. The Leafs are in the middle of a stretch where they’ll play 12 of their first 16 games at home, but home ice hasn’t meant much. Toronto has been wildly inconsistent, dropping three of its first four at Scotiabank Arena before beating a lifeless Philadelphia squad that gifted them goals. Now they’re being asked to spot a big price against a battle-tested Penguins team that’s been on the road for what feels like a month.

The Leafs’ blue line is held together by tape and hope. Chris Tanev is coming off a concussion scare and was stretchered off the ice in Philly, while William Nylander remains out. That’s two major pieces missing from an already thin structure. Their forward depth behind the Matthews line isn’t scaring anyone, and Craig Berube’s group continues to give up quality looks despite outshooting opponents. Toronto’s defensive metrics are bottom-third in expected goals allowed, and it’s not just bad luck—it’s bad coverage. Pittsburgh’s eight-game point streak came to an end in Winnipeg, but this team has found its stride. Before Saturday, they’d gone 6-0-2 and were generating consistent offense with strong five-on-five play. Sidney Crosby continues to carry the load, but the Penguins’ biggest improvement has come in their transitional game. They’re skating well, forcing turnovers, and creating odd-man rushes—exactly the type of hockey that exposes Toronto’s careless puck management. This is also a terrible situational spot for the Leafs. They return home after a brief road split, they’ve been playing without rhythm, and they’re still being lined like an elite team. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh finishes a four-game trip and would love to go home with a statement win. The Penguins have the goaltending edge, they have the better structure, and they’re priced like they don’t belong on the same ice.

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