Pinnacle    +145    BET365  +145   Sportsinteraction  +145  888port  +145

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Ottawa +145 over Tampa Bay

Amalie Arena – Tampa, FL

7:00 PM ET. OT included. The Lightning are being priced like it’s still 2021, and that’s the opportunity. The Sens are being priced like they still haven’t figured it out, and that’s the mistake.

Ottawa snapped an eight-year playoff drought last season and did so with substance, not luck. They were one point shy of finishing third in the Atlantic, went toe-to-toe with the Maple Leafs in Round One, and showed that the rebuild is officially over. They added defensive stability and experience in Jordan Spence — a kid with composure and poise who instantly upgrades their third pairing. The core of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Josh Norris is now entering the “we know how to win” phase, and that progression is real.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is being hung as a chalk here because of history and zip code. The Lightning went 6-1 in the preseason, which means absolutely nothing except that they wasted effort trying to win meaningless hockey games. Their final tune-up against Florida turned into a circus — 322 penalty minutes, a team fine, a suspension to J.J. Moser, and an emotional hangover that no coach would ever want to carry into opening night. That’s not “battle-tested,” that’s disorganized and impulsive.

Let’s not forget that Tampa Bay’s roster is older, slower, and thinner than it’s been in years. Behind Kucherov, the secondary scoring has eroded. Stamkos still has the shot, but the miles are adding up. The blue line is paper-thin without Moser, and the bottom six is now more about size than skill. Those giant call-ups — 6'9" Douglas and 6'6" Finley — are window dressing, not problem solving.

The market will look at this and see “Tampa home opener, bounce-back spot, experienced core.” We see a stale favorite in an emotional letdown, laying a number built on reputation. Ottawa has speed, structure, and confidence. Meanwhile, Tampa’s been trading punches in preseason bar fights.

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