Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle   +138 BET365   +130 Sportsinteraction   +130  888Sport  +130

Buffalo +138 over Dallas

7:07 PM EST. OT included. Does Dallas really deserve to be favored in this range on the road against a team as live as the Sabres? We say no. For one, Dallas plays in Toronto tomorrow night so this game is just an appetizer before the main course and it comes after a layoff. After Toronto, Dallas plays in Montreal on Saturday on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada so again, this game is just a warm-up before playing in two cities that every visiting team in the West looks forward to playing in. Good spot for Buffalo to catch Dallas flat.

Then there’s Dallas’ goaltender Jake Oettinger who is getting torched lately to the tune of an .873 SV% and 3.94 GAA over his past four starts. Furthermore, Dallas is one of the NHL’s most overvalued teams because of their strong record but that record has been extremely luck driven. You see, Dallas ranks 14th in the league in Expected Goals for (xGF) per 60 minutes but have scored the 3rd most goals because of their lucky high shooting percentage. Regression in that area is inevitable.

The Sabres found their goaltender in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who has posted a .909 SV% and 2.61 GAA but he’s allowed two or fewer goals in seven of his past nine starts. Over that stretch, he is 6-3 with an outstanding .940 SV% and 1.57 GAA. The Sabres are a team that can put up four goals or more on any team in the NHL and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Sabres are ready to get Zemgus Girgensons and Erik Johnson back into the lineup, as both players have been medically cleared by the team according to Joe Yerdon of Bleacher Report. Prior to the break, Buffalo had won two in a row and four of six while scoring five goals in each of its last two games. Dallas is greatly being overvalued here and we’re on it.

Sherwood

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