Posted at 11:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +149 BET365 +150 Sportsinteraction +150 888Sport +145

Washington +150 over Minnesota

8:07 PM EST. OT Included. Washington is inconsistent but they win games and they’re not an easy out. The Caps are 4-3 in their last seven games with victories over the Kings and Rangers among others while losing to Seattle, Carolina, St. Louis and New Jersey. Washington is almost always a 50/50 proposition with little to no appeal as the chalk but tons of appeal taking back this price in Minnesota. That said, this wager is all about fading the Wild.  

Minnesota -180? C’mon man! The Wild have won three of four including two in a row over both Florida and Carolina, which in turn has their stock trending up because Florida and Carolina are two tough teams to beat but once again we’ll turn to results having a major impact on the market as opposed to the performance on the ice. Minnesota indeed won its last game, 5-2 over Carolina but they deserved to lose 13-0. At one point, Carolina was outshooting the Wild 35-12. The final shots on net were 42-17 in favor of Carolina. The Wild were chasing the puck all night long. They rarely had the puck the entire game and looked like they were killing a penalty for 60 minutes. They were even worse against Florida the game before. 

On January 19th, four days ago, Sergei Bobrovsky started for Florida against Minnesota and was yanked after allowing four goals on the first 15 shots. Florida outchanced the Wild 23-6 and lost 6-4. In other words, Florida’s two goaltenders did not make one good save the entire night. How do you get outchanced 23-6 and win 6-4? That’s hockey for you, where the inferior team by a wide margin wins frequently because of so much variance in a game. It is the only sport in which teams get dominated nightly and win and that’s the current narrative regarding the Wild. They are the epitome of good and bad luck impacting the final score.

Prior to back-to-back extremely lucky victories, the Wild lost 7-3 to Tampa, 6-0 to Arizona and 7-2 and 4-0 in back-to-back games against Dallas. That’s four blowout losses by 4, 6, 5 and 4 goals and now they’re favored in this range because why? The Minnesota Wild are a weak hockey team that has a better chance of losing by three goals than winning by one. The Wild return home from a three game trip (2 games in Florida and one in Carolina) to the frigid state of Minnesota in awful form after chasing the puck for two consecutive games. They are often chasing the puck. If the Wild get lucky again and win tonight at this price, good for them but the Caps (or anyone else not named San Jose) must be played when taking back a price like this against the Wild.

Sherwood

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