NHL Playoffs - Game 3
Florida +122 over Toronto

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +122 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +121 888Sport +120

Florida +122 over Toronto

6:40 PM EST. OT included. Why is Toronto favored is the question. The Maple Leafs had everything aligned perfectly to win Game 1 of this series, as the Leafs had an extra day's rest, Florida had just come off an exhilarating Game 7 win over the Bruins and Toronto had two very early power-plays for a chance to get to the front. The Leafs still lost, not because they were badly outplayed, but because Florida got the breaks and Toronto didn’t (puck luck).

In Game 2, Toronto had a 2-0 very early lead and could not score again despite outplaying the Panthers in another unlucky result. The Panthers have now won five straight games while the Maple Leafs used up all of their luck in Round 1 in which they had no business advancing to Round 2. No team in the first round was outplayed more than Toronto was against Tampa. So, the reason Toronto is favored today is because the sportsbooks have all the data to see which teams are being bet, thus if they made the Panthers the favorite, the liability on the Maple Leafs would be massive. If the market was betting Toronto at -170 and -180 in the first two games, the oddsmakers cannot make Florida a favorite in Game 3.

As we head into Game 3 in Sunrise, this is a 50/50 proposition on the ice. Mentally, some will argue that Toronto should be more relaxed here now that they’re on the road and because the media and a good portion of the public has written them off. We’ll argue that Florida’s confidence has never been higher and if they have taken that next step in smelling a badly wounded prey, they’ll be more than ready to put their foot on Toronto’s neck. Mentally, it is not a 50/50 proposition so give a psychological edge to the host.

We mentioned that the price to get behind Florida in both Game 1 and Game 2 were absurd. Here in Game 3, it’s not quite as absurd but books were forced to make Toronto the favorite and that means we once again have to come back on the value and let the chips fall where they may. We’re not making a prediction here, we are merely pointing out where the value lies.



Our Pick

Florida +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

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