Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Buffalo +130 over Tampa Bay
7:00 PM EST. OT Included. The Sabres are coming off a 3-1 loss to the Devils but man did they ever play good in the final 30 minutes of that one after a bit of a slow start. Buffalo’s stock is still low after it dropped eight in a row recently and with only two wins in its last 11. However, they’ve been a tough out for the most part, especially at home. Even when they went into Tampa back in early November, the Sabres took a lead into the third period before succumbing. That game was also tied 3-3 late in the third. Offensively, the Sabres can go punch for punch with anyone. Their xGF is higher than Tampa’s but it’s on the defensive end, specifically goaltending, which has been Buffalo’s Achilles Heel. Still, as a dog at home in a decent spot, Buffalo is worth a wager.
You see, Tampa plays in Boston tomorrow so they have saved Andrei Vasilevskiy for that game, which suggests that this one is of far less importance to them. Why wouldn’t it be? The Bolts have seen it all and done it all over the past few years so it would be very reasonable to assume that Buffalo will be more motivated to beat TB than vice versa. Brian Elliott gets this call with his 4-1 record, but a SV% of .891 doesn’t come close to supporting his four wins in five games. It’ll be all hands on deck here for a highly motivated Sabres team and that’s enough for us to move in against what looks to be a far less motivated Tampa team, who, unlike the Sabres, can afford to take plenty of nights off during the season. What motivates the Lightning here? They’ve beaten Buffalo 10 of the last 11, it's November, and they play in Boston tomorrow.
Buffalo +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)