Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
Calgary +165 over Boston
7:08 PM EST. OT included. The Flames are a damn good team, that is playing some damn good hockey, but what plagues Calgary, plagues many teams in this league—solid, consistent goaltending. The Flames have lost six straight, which has their stock in the tank. Wins and losses are what the market reacts to the most, which is why Calgary is taking back a price they shouldn't be.
During this run of losses, Calgary has outshot its opposition in four of those six games. Quite substantially, actually. The Flames outshot New Jersey last game, 35-20 and lost. They outshot the Islanders, 46-32 the game prior and lost, Calgary also dominated Edmonton (42-to-26) and Seattle (40-to-26) to kick off this losing run back in games on October 29 and November 1, respectively. That means the Flames' last win was way, way back on October 25, when they knocked off Pittsburgh, 4-1, in Calgary.
We faded the Bruins on Monday night against St. Louis, and we covered the Mitchell Miller disaster in detail. If you somehow missed it, what we wrote then still rings true today. However, we’ll summarize—Miller and his family are trash. The Bruins brass was embarrassed by trying to slip Miller’s signing past the goalie, but they were called out by their locker room leaders, and just about everybody else that wasn’t an immediate family member. Those immediate family members managed to show their true colors, which were U-G-L-Y, ugly. The Millers deserve each other, but they do not deserve the perks, pleasures, and privilege that comes with playing in the NHL. Good riddance to bad rubbish. We hope those snakes never poke their heads out of the grass again. It's dark and hell is hot.
On the ice, the Bruins have been shot out of a cannon. They are 11-2, and while they do have the analytics supporting their hot start (5th in puck possession), those analytics also help us show that their opposition tonight is playing just as well (the Flames are 6th), but they are not getting the bounces. When measuring PDO (SV% + SH%) or “puck luck,” the B’s have been most fortunate (7th), while the Flames have not (27th). Those bounces are supposed to even out over time. We cannot pinpoint when or where that will happen, but a correction is coming. At the end of the day, the Flames are too good to keep losing at this absurd pace. At this absurd price, they are absolutely worth getting behind.
Calgary +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)