Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -3½ -110 over Atlanta

9:30 AM EST. Yes, breakfast football in a soccer cathedral, and the pick is Cincinnati -3½, because one of these quarterbacks is playing like a franchise and the other is playing like a turnover subscription service. Joe Burrow has thrown 20 touchdowns against 6 interceptions for a 5-2 Bengals team, while Michael Penix Jr. sits at 10 touchdowns and 11 picks for a 3-5 Atlanta outfit that just got shut out 16-0 by Tampa Bay. That is not a slump. That is an offense that flew to Europe looking for its own pulse.

Start with the simplest math in the matchup. Atlanta converts third downs at a miserable 33 percent clip, and last week it produced a grand total of zero points against a division rival. The Falcons run the ball respectably, 1,078 rushing yards as a team, but when every drive eventually lands in third and long, Penix has to throw, and when Penix has to throw, the other team eventually gets the football. Cincinnati's attack has no such trapdoor. Burrow and his receivers are the entire operation and they know it, the over has cashed in three straight Bengals games because this team plays in shootouts by design, and a 52.5 total tells you the market expects points. In a track meet, take the quarterback who does not give the ball away. Now the part nobody in Cincinnati wants to say out loud. The Bengals' defence is a rumour.

They just needed overtime to survive Tennessee 43-36, their secondary is held together with ankle tape (DJ Turner II, Jordan Battle and Kyle Dugger are all questionable), and Andrei Iosivas is on injured reserve, so the margin for error is thinner than the -3½ suggests. Atlanta's ground game can absolutely shorten this game and keep Burrow sipping coffee on the sideline. All of that is real. It still does not fix the Falcons having to score in the mid twenties to hang around, something an offense missing Zachariah Branch and Samson Ebukam, with Brian Robinson Jr. nursing a hamstring, has shown no recent ability to do. A shutout travels badly.

So the script writes itself. Cincinnati scores early, Atlanta's run game keeps it respectable for a half, and then the game state forces Penix into obvious passing downs against a defence that only has to be opportunistic, not good. One mistake becomes two, the Bengals' passing game cashes both, and a neutral site crowd that came to see touchdowns gets them from the team that actually brought a quarterback.

Sportsinteraction