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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tennessee +113 over Cleveland

1:00 PM EST. Always be vigilant against bad favorites. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably — programs that haven't won much at all, aren't accustomed to playing with leads, and haven't had enough experience closing out games. That is Cleveland in this spot, and that is why we are playing Tennessee on the money line rather than taking the points. The Browns opened as 1½-point road favorites and the line has been bet up to 2½, but Cleveland has not done nearly enough to warrant being road chalk. This is a franchise with a losing tradition that hasn't been favored on the road in probably 30 years, going back to the days of Brian Sipe or Bernie Kosar, and now the market is asking it to go into someone else's building and win as the favorite. That is not a role this team knows how to play.

The spot could not be more inviting for a letdown, either. Cleveland squeezed out a 13-10 win over Baltimore last week, and for a team that has been beaten up by its division rivals for decades, not years, that is a massive emotional victory. Now the Browns start a three-game road stretch, and waiting next week is Pittsburgh, their most hated rival. This is the perfect sandwich game: a team coming off its biggest win in a long time, with its biggest rivalry game on deck, asked to lay points on the road in between against an opponent nobody respects. A team like Cleveland, unaccustomed to being road chalk, is exactly the kind of team that gets caught looking ahead in this spot.

The matchup gives Tennessee a real path, too, and it starts with the lowest total on the Week 7 board — 36.5 to 38.5 depending on the book. That number is the entire argument in miniature: this game will be a rock fight, and in a rock fight the home team is holding the better ticket. Tennessee also finally has a pulse. The Titans went to Indianapolis last week and won 26-20, outscoring the Colts 26-7 after halftime to snap a seven-game losing streak, with the defense producing six sacks and three forced turnovers. Jeffery Simmons and Jermaine Johnson II had two sacks apiece, and now they get Deshaun Watson, the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL at 24 and counting. Cleveland's 4-2 record, meanwhile, has been built entirely in its own building — the Browns are still chasing their first road win since Week 2. Their best offensive weapon, Quinshon Judkins, missed last week with an ankle, was limited Wednesday, and is questionable; if he's out or hobbled, a one-dimensional Cleveland offense is asking Watson to win it from the pocket against that pass rush.

The disclaimer is as big as the case: Tennessee's offense is statistically the worst in football — last in total yards, last in passing yards, 14.0 points a game — and Cam Ward (4 TDs, 4 INTs) has thrown a pick in four straight games. Cleveland's defense is elite, second in sacks with 19, and no quarterback has thrown for 300 yards against it in 51 straight games. The Titans don't win this with offense; they win it the way they won last week — sacks, turnovers, field goals and a home crowd in a 20-17 slopfest.

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