Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Green Bay +104 over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. When was the last time the Chicago Bears walked into Lambeau Field as a favorite? You'd have to go all the way back to 2006, when Rex Grossman was quarterbacking the Bears. That's twenty years ago, folks. Twenty years of Green Bay generally being the team that commanded respect in this rivalry, and now Chicago is laying points on the road without its starting quarterback. If that doesn't tell you how dramatically perceptions have changed in the first month of the season, nothing will.

Green Bay has become one of the least appealing teams in football. The Packers look awful, smell awful, and have done very little to convince anybody that things are about to improve. Jordan Love hasn't looked particularly sharp, the offense has been inconsistent, and the defense has been equally disappointing. Last week's loss to Tampa Bay was another ugly chapter, particularly considering the Buccaneers were starting rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels.

Meanwhile, Chicago is enjoying a completely different reception. The Bears are winning football games, Tyson Bagent has kept the offense functioning in Caleb Williams' absence, and Ben Johnson's team is beginning to attract the kind of attention that Green Bay used to receive automatically.

The Bears piled up 492 yards and 34 first downs against the Jets last week. That's an impressive afternoon by any standard, even if Chicago managed only 23 points because of repeated failures in the red zone. The Bears moved the football almost at will, and the final score probably understated how thoroughly they controlled the game.

Green Bay, on the other hand, lost to a Tampa Bay team that entered the game without a victory. Jordan Love threw an interception near the Buccaneers' goal line, and the Packers squandered opportunities against an opponent they were widely expected to handle. Those are the performances everyone remembers. And those are the performances that influence the next week's betting line but there's a difference between recognizing that Chicago has played better football and deciding the Bears deserve to be favored at Lambeau Field.

Had somebody suggested before the season that Chicago would be laying points in Green Bay while playing without Caleb Williams, the response would have been laughter. The Bears were supposed to be an improving team, not one that could lose its starting quarterback and suddenly command favorite status in one of football's most difficult road environments. Yet here we are.

The market is reacting to what it has seen over four weeks, and those reactions have created a substantial shift in the perceived value of both teams. Chicago's stock is climbing, Green Bay's stock is sinking, and the betting line has moved accordingly.

That's exactly the type of situation that gets our attention.

We're in the buy-low, sell-high business, and there aren't many teams with lower stock than Green Bay right now. The Packers are being dismissed as a mess, while the Bears are receiving considerable praise for overcoming their quarterback situation and continuing to win.

The interesting part is that Green Bay hasn't been completely incapable of moving the football. Against Tampa Bay, the Packers had opportunities to put points on the board but failed to finish drives. That's frustrating, certainly, but it's also different from an offense that cannot advance the ball at all. Jordan Love and the Packers still have enough offensive ability to make Chicago's defense work.

The Packers are not an attractive selection. That's the point. Attractive teams generally come with unattractive prices, and Chicago has become the fashionable side of this matchup. Four weeks ago, Green Bay would have been the favorite here. Now the Packers are getting points at home against a division rival playing with its backup quarterback. That's an enormous change in perception over a very short period.

Chicago might be the better team at the moment, but the market has taken that observation and stretched it into a price that gives the Bears too much credit and the Packers too little.

Green Bay is ugly, unpopular and coming off another embarrassing loss. Chicago is winning, gaining confidence and attracting plenty of attention. Everything about the current narrative points toward the Bears. Everything about the price points toward Green Bay.

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