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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +5½ -110 over Philadelphia

4:25 PM EST. It wasn't very long ago that Washington was playing Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game and Jayden Daniels looked like the next great quarterback in this league. Then Daniels played only seven games last season, Washington collapsed to 5-12 and suddenly everybody wants off the train. Funny how quickly things change in the NFL. We're not going to pretend last season didn't happen, but we're also not going to price Washington as though Daniels wasn't missing for most of it. The Commanders' stock has gone from the penthouse to the basement in about 20 months, and now we're being offered +5½ with Daniels back on the field. That's interesting.

Of course, Philadelphia is the comfortable side. The Eagles are the established contender with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and one of the league's nastiest defensive fronts. Meanwhile, we've heard all summer about Washington's offensive-line problems, Laremy Tunsil's injury, its lousy preseason and every other reason the Commanders supposedly aren't ready. We don't care about preseason scores and we certainly aren't interested in handicapping August practices. If Washington had looked fantastic all summer, we wouldn't be getting +5½. The bad news isn't some secret we've uncovered. It's precisely why this number exists.

What matters to us is that Daniels changes everything. This isn't some replacement-level quarterback returning from injury. We've already seen what Washington looks like when he's healthy, and now he has Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs to work with. Daniels can create when protection breaks down, extend drives with his legs and turn a play that appears dead into six points. That's exactly the type of quarterback we want when taking this many points. Philadelphia can control portions of this game and still find Washington hanging around because Daniels doesn't need everything around him to be perfect to create offense.

We're not calling for Philadelphia's demise and we don't need Washington to win the NFC East. We're buying a depressed stock with a potentially elite quarterback while everyone else is paying a premium for the established commodity. The Commanders were a disaster last year, and the market has made sure everybody knows it. Fine by us. The spread is the great equalizer, and +5½ with Jayden Daniels is considerably more attractive to us than laying a big divisional price with the team everybody already knows is good. Washington has been written off quickly. We'll take advantage of it before Daniels gives the market a reason to remember why everybody was so excited about him in the first place.

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