Pinnacle  -2 -110 BET365   -2 -110  Sportsinteraction   -2 -110 888Sport   -2 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Green Bay -2 over Chicago

NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round

Saturday – Soldier Field

8:00 PM ET. Chicago has the shiny record, the home field, and the feel-good rookie quarterback story. Green Bay has the lower seed, the four-game losing streak, and the public perception that they backed into January. That is exactly why this number is sitting under a field goal instead of closer to a pick’em. The market is not buying what the Bears are selling.

Let’s talk about what really happened in the two regular-season meetings. In the first, Green Bay won outright. In the second, Chicago needed an onside kick, a miracle drive, and a fourth-and-one fumble by a backup quarterback just to steal it in overtime. Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs did not even play in that game. Now they do. Love is back healthy, fully practiced all week, and owns a 101 passer rating with six picks all season. Jacobs brings 13 touchdowns and a physical run game Chicago did not have to deal with in the fluky rematch. This is not the same matchup.

Chicago’s defense looks scary on the turnover sheet, but that's a luck-based statistic, and the reality is they finished bottom-four in yards allowed. They give up chunk plays, they bleed yardage, and they rely on mistakes. That’s fine against careless teams. It is not a great recipe against a quarterback who protects the ball and an offense that can grind. Green Bay’s offense has been far more consistent than Chicago’s all year, and when the Packers get ahead, Jacobs and that run game are designed to close the door.

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