Pinnacle +13.5 -110  BET365   +13.5 -110 Sportsinteraction  +13.5 -110  888Sport  +13.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +13.5 over New England

1:00 PM ET. On the surface, New England looks like a freight train — division clinched, top seed in sight, coming off a 42–10 demolition of the Jets with Drake Maye throwing five touchdowns. That’s exactly the résumé that inflates a line. But peel it back and the timing is awkward. The Patriots are balancing a potential first-round bye, off-field distractions involving key players, and the reality that winning ugly counts the same as winning big. When the goal is positioning, not punishment, margin becomes secondary.

Miami, meanwhile, is in the dangerous nothing-to-lose bucket. The Dolphins have pivoted cleanly to evaluation mode, and rookie Quinn Ewers quietly took a meaningful step forward last week — no turnovers, two touchdowns, and a composed performance in a win over Tampa Bay. More importantly, Miami leaned on its identity. Even with questions around availability, this team wants to run the football, shorten the game, and keep things manageable. That’s exactly how double-digit dogs stay inside big numbers late in the season.

The market is assuming New England needs to flex for four quarters. We’re not buying it. This feels like a controlled game where the Patriots are content to get out healthy, and Miami is fully engaged for sixty minutes. When motivation, game script, and price all line up, we’re happy to take the generous points. Miami doesn’t need to win — they just need to hang around. And this setup gives them every chance to do just that.

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