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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit +160 over Chicago

4:25 PM ET. This is one of those Week 18 numbers that tells you everything you need to know about how the market is thinking — and why we’re happy to go the other way. Chicago has already clinched the division, Detroit is “playing for pride,” and the public reflexively upgrades the Bears because they still have seeding on the line. That logic ignores how these spots actually play out. Motivation is being overstated on one side and completely dismissed on the other, which is how you end up with a Lions team catching more than a field goal against a division rival they embarrassed earlier this season.

Chicago’s loss at San Francisco last week matters here. The Bears came up short in a game that required maximum emotional and physical investment, and now they’re asked to turn around and lay points again with injuries mounting and no margin for error heading into the playoffs. Yes, Caleb Williams piled up yards, but this is also a game where individual milestones and self-preservation start creeping into the equation, whether teams admit it or not. Meanwhile, Detroit has nothing to protect. Jared Goff is playing, Dan Campbell is coaching like a man who knows this season was a failure, and those are often the most dangerous teams in the final week.

Detroit’s season has gone off the rails, but this is still a roster capable of hanging around in a divisional game, especially against a Bears team that doesn’t need style points. Chicago wins this game by four or more, or they don’t — and in rivalry games like this, the latter happens far more often than the market wants to admit. Lions outright.

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