Pinnacle    +190   BET365    +190  Sportsinteraction   +190 888port   +190

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +190 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. Tampa Bay needs this game to stay alive in the NFC South, while Miami is officially in spoiler mode with a rookie quarterback under center — and that’s exactly why the Bucs are being priced like they’re supposed to show up, take care of business, and move on. We’re not buying it. Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven games, and those losses have come after key offensive pieces returned. That’s not bad luck — that’s a team tightening up under pressure. Desperation football is rarely clean football, especially on the road.

The optics say Baker Mayfield vs. a rookie, playoff urgency vs. evaluation mode. The reality says something different. Tampa Bay has lost three straight games by four points or fewer, repeatedly failing in high-leverage moments — penalties, red-zone inefficiency, late interceptions. That’s a profile of a team pressing, not one peaking. Miami, meanwhile, gets to play loose. Quinn Ewers wasn’t perfect in his first start, but he showed command early, moved the ball, and most importantly, gained real game reps with zero expectations attached. That’s often when young quarterbacks are at their most dangerous — aggressive, fearless, and unconcerned with standings math.

Defensively, Miami has taken heat for second-half collapses the last two weeks, but context matters. Those came against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh — two offenses built to punish mistakes. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t shown that same killer instinct during this slide, and now they’re missing key pieces up front and on defense. Strip away the urgency narrative and what’s left is a struggling road favorite laying expectation against a home dog with nothing to lose. At nearly +2-to-1, Miami doesn’t need to be the better team — just the freer one. That’s the side with value.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.