Pinnacle    +450   BET365   +450  Sportsinteraction  +450 888port  +450

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Justin Herbert to throw 2+ Interceptions

4:30 PM ET. Justin Herbert is elite, but this matchup has proven to be his kryptonite — and the market is pretending last January never happened. Houston didn’t just pick him off four times in the playoff blowout; they broke his rhythm, sped up his clock, and baited him into mistakes with pressure and disguised coverage. Fast forward to now and the ingredients are still there: the Texans lead the league in scoring defense and total defense, sit near the top in takeaway margin, and can get home with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. without blitzing. That forces Herbert to test a secondary loaded with ball hawks like Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock — all with four interceptions apiece. Add in the situational pressure of a division race, Herbert openly acknowledging the mental residue of last year’s collapse, and a Houston team playing with a win-and-in edge, and you’ve got a recipe for volatility. Herbert usually protects the ball, which is exactly why +450 is hanging there. But this opponent, this structure, and this spot create a much fatter interception tail than the market wants to admit. This isn’t calling for a meltdown — it’s betting on Houston dragging him back into uncomfortable decisions again.

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