Pinnacle    +105   BET365   +105  Sportsinteraction  +105 888port  +105

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Houston +105 over LA Chargers

4:30 PM ET. This is where recency bias is doing all the heavy lifting for the number. The Los Angeles Chargers have won and covered four straight, capped by a loud, nationally televised 17-point thumping of the Cowboys last week. That result is fresh, clean, and easy for the market to digest, so the Chargers get upgraded accordingly. On the other side, the Houston Texans did nothing sexy, grinding out a two-point win over the Raiders at home as a heavy favorite. One team looks dominant, the other looks underwhelming — and the line reacts exactly how you’d expect. That’s precisely why Houston is sitting at plus money.

But context matters, and this matchup isn’t being played in a vacuum. Strip away last week’s box scores and you’re left with a Texans defense that already broke this Chargers offense once when it actually mattered. Justin Herbert didn’t just have a bad game against Houston in the playoffs — he melted. Four interceptions, sub-44% completion rate, and constant pressure without exotic blitzing. That blueprint still exists. Houston leads the league in scoring defense and total defense, generates pressure organically, and turns hesitation into turnovers. When Herbert is talking publicly about ball security all week, that’s not confidence — that’s awareness of risk.

Meanwhile, Houston’s offense doesn’t need style points here. C.J. Stroud simply needs to avoid mistakes and let the defense dictate the script. The Chargers’ recent covers have come with momentum and margin, but those are fragile things when you’re facing a unit built to shorten games and punish impatience. The market is pricing the last result, not the actual matchup. When that happens, we step in. Houston catching plus money is the value side, even if it doesn’t look pretty on the surface.

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