Pinnacle    +13.5 -110   BET365   +13.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  +13.5 -110 888port  +13.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City +13.5 over Denver

8:15 PM ET. This number is pure market emotion. Denver is being priced like a juggernaut with everything to play for, while Kansas City is being treated like a bye-week opponent simply showing up to fulfill a schedule obligation. That gap — nearly two touchdowns — has far less to do with on-field separation and far more to do with narrative. The Broncos are chasing the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs are “playing out the string,” and the market has taken that storyline and stretched it too far.

Yes, Kansas City is depleted. Patrick Mahomes is done, Gardner Minshew is done, and Chris Oladokun is making his first career start. That sounds terrifying — until you remember this is the NFL, divisional familiarity matters, and Denver already struggled to put distance between these teams when Mahomes was healthy. The first meeting was a 22-19 game decided on the final kick. Now we’re being asked to believe the same matchup suddenly warrants laying 13½ on the road, on a short week, after Denver just had an 11-game win streak snapped at home by Jacksonville. That’s a massive leap.

This also isn’t the spot for Denver to be stylish. Sean Payton has already said the quiet part out loud — “whatever it takes to win.” That usually means conservative, risk-averse football, not margin hunting. Meanwhile, Kansas City has nothing to lose, which is often when teams play loose, simplify the offense, and lean on pride. Add in the emotional layer of what could be Travis Kelce’s final home game, and you’ve got a Chiefs team that will be fully engaged even if the ceiling is limited. Oladokun doesn’t need to be good — he just needs to avoid disaster.

Denver can absolutely win this game. That’s not the question. The question is whether they can justify a number that implies a blowout against a divisional opponent that already proved capable of dragging them into the mud. With the Broncos’ motivation fully baked into the line and then some, the value lives with the ugly side. We’ll take the points and let the market’s overconfidence do the rest.

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