Pinnacle    +7.5 -110   BET365   +7.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  +7.5 -110 888port  +7.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +7.5 over Detroit

4:30 PM ET. This number is built on urgency and optics — not on separation. Detroit is being priced like a team that has to win big because its playoff life depends on it, while Minnesota is being treated like a team that has already packed it in. That’s how you end up with more than a touchdown in a divisional matchup that already went down to the final possession once this season. The market is overvaluing desperation and undervaluing familiarity, which is a mistake we’re happy to exploit.

Yes, the Vikings are banged up and out of the playoff picture, and yes, Max Brosmer is making just his second start. That’s all baked into the number — and then some. What isn’t being priced properly is how narrow Detroit’s margin really is. The Lions are coming off a brutal home loss, are short on rest, and are dealing with their own injury concerns, including Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery. Jared Goff has had a strong season, but when these teams met in early November, Detroit still lost outright despite moving the ball, and Goff was sacked five times. Minnesota’s defensive structure clearly gave him problems, and that doesn’t just disappear because the calendar flipped to December.

This also isn’t a spot where Minnesota needs to do much offensively to stay inside the number. Justin Jefferson is chasing another 1,000-yard season, and divisional games at home have a way of staying ugly and compressed, especially on short weeks. Detroit needs style points; Minnesota just needs to hang around — and divisional dogs with nothing to lose tend to do exactly that. The Lions can win this game and still fail to cover, and that’s the most likely outcome. We’ll take the points and let the market’s overreaction do the rest.

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