Pinnacle  -3.5  -105   BET365   -3.5  -105  Sportsinteraction  -3.5 -105 888port  -3.5  -105

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Denver -3.5 over Jacksonville

4:05 PM ET. We’ve been slow to buy in, but Bo Nix has forced our hand over the last month. After a couple of clunkers against Houston and Las Vegas, Denver’s offense has quietly taken a legitimate step forward, averaging 26.8 points per game over the last four weeks while ranking top-five in EPA per play, success rate, and passing efficiency. This isn’t smoke-and-mirrors production either — it came against quality defensive units like Kansas City and Green Bay. Denver already has its playoff ticket punched, but this is still a high-leverage spot with the AFC West title in reach, and Sean Payton teams tend to smell blood when there’s something tangible on the table.

Jacksonville deserves credit for its five-game heater, but context matters. That run came against Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis with Riley Leonard under center, and a Jets team that’s been leaking oil for months. Trevor Lawrence has looked sharp, but this is a clear step up in class on the road against a defense that thrives on pressure and forcing mistakes. Denver has won and covered the last two meetings, they’re at home, they’re healthier, and right now they’re simply the more complete team. If Nix plays anywhere close to the level he’s shown recently, laying a short number here is a price we’re willing to pay — humble pie and all.

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