Pinnacle   -3 -110    BET365    -3 -110  Sportsinteraction  -3 -110 888port  -3 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Indianapolis -3 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. Markets are clinging to the idea that this series is always close — and it has been — but context matters, and the context here is that Houston is walking into a very different environment than the coin-flip games of the past three years. This is Indy’s first home game in over a month, the building will be frothing, and the Colts finally get to dictate pace instead of surviving it.

Houston’s three-game winning streak looks good on paper, but it came with an asterisk: Davis Mills managing the offense, ultra-controlled game scripts, and two outright gifts from opponents. Now the Texans are flipping back to C.J. Stroud off a concussion, on the road, in a matchup where rhythm matters more than talent. Quarterbacks returning from head injuries rarely hit the ground running, and the Texans’ offense wasn’t exactly humming before he went down.

Indy’s offense has flattened out as more tape has come in on Daniel Jones, but that’s embedded in the number. They were out-gained badly at Kansas City last week, yet still dragged the game to overtime in a brutal scheduling spot. The market treats that as a negative; it’s not. It tells us Indianapolis’ floor is much higher than it appears, and their run game still forces defenses into uncomfortable boxes.

Houston has been living on turnovers, short fields, and opponents imploding late. That’s not a sustainable recipe, nor is going on the road against a Colts team that has been waiting weeks to get back home. Indy’s defensive front is a different beast in their own building, and this is the one matchup where their physicality shows up from the opening snap and doesn’t fade.

There’s respect built into this line for Houston because every game in this series “always lands close.” That creates the bargain. Indianapolis is the better team, in the better spot, with the cleaner profile, and the Texans’ three-game win streak only serves to inflate a team that’s been living on borrowed time.

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