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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Cincinnati +7½ over New England

1:00 PM ET. The Patriots went into Cincinnati last year as better than a major pooch and walked out with a 16-10 win. That might be the last time these two franchises even resembled what they once were. Now we get a matchup of two battered, lopsided rosters and a total misread from the market on who should be spotting a full converted TD.

New England is being priced like a dependable outfit because they’re 5-0 both straight-up and ATS on the road. That’s window dressing. This is the Patriots’ 12th straight week without a bye, which is borderline cruel in today’s NFL. They’ve been dragging themselves through the schedule for a month now, and every film session looks the same: ground-and-pound, shorten the game, avoid mistakes, and hope their defense manufactures points. That’s not a recipe for margin.

The Bengals, meanwhile, look dead because they’ve dropped seven of eight. They look even deader if Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension is upheld because Joe Flacco has essentially been running the “throw the ball at No. 1 repeatedly” offense. Chase has averaged 14.4 targets per game since Flacco took over. When the Bengals have run plays without him this season, their EPA and success rate crater. Losing him hurts, but it also forces Cincinnati to scrap the stale, one-read blueprint they've been leaning on. Sometimes necessity is the only thing that gets a coaching staff to stop being stubborn.

Offensively, New England isn’t exactly lighting brushfires either. Aside from the Carolina outburst, they’ve been playing in cement boots. Their 31-13 win over Tennessee was pure illusion — the Patriots' defense scored, Tennessee imploded, and New England still mustered only one fourth-down touchdown in their last six games. They’re not built to run away, they’re built to bleed the clock.

That's why giving seven is a terrible idea. You need margin to cover sevens. New England doesn’t generate margin; they generate 17-13 rock fights.

Cincinnati’s defense can hold up long enough against this plodding Pats offense to keep the whole thing inside the number, and if this turns into an arm-punt contest for 60 minutes, we’ll gladly take the dog who doesn’t have to blow the doors off anyone to cash.

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