Pinnacle   +125     BET365 +125   Sportsinteraction  +125  888port  +125

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Pittsburgh +125 over Chicago

1:00 PM ET. Chicago keeps winning games they have no business winning, which is exactly why they’re overpriced here. Seven wins, five of them by a single score, most of them requiring some combination of divine intervention, last-minute chaos, or opponents handing them the game on a silver platter. That isn’t “7-1 form.” That’s voodoo. And voodoo never lasts. Eventually, you have to actually outplay someone.

The market still sees Chicago as this gritty, ascending, Caleb-led darling. What we see is a team skating on razor blades: negative point differential, escape acts every week, and an offense that sputters until the final minutes when the script breaks down and Williams just starts freelancing. That’s not sustainable. That’s roulette.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is being priced like they just lost Prime Aaron Rodgers. They didn’t. They lost the version of Rodgers who refused to push the ball past eight yards and turned the Steelers’ playbook into a laminated cue card of screens and checkdowns. Rudolph might not be glamorous, but he’s willing to throw to the intermediate level, and suddenly the Steelers’ offense becomes unpredictable again. Teams had Rodgers figured out. They don’t have film on this version of Pittsburgh.

The Steelers’ defense is also built for games like this — games where the Bears live on tight margins and late-game heroics. Chicago isn’t blowing anyone out. They keep every opponent alive. That’s a dangerous recipe when the team across from you has a pass rush, a takeaway machine, and no fear of a street fight.

If we want to talk variance? Caleb Williams is always good for one YOLO throw per game that turns into six points the other way. Rudolph isn’t immune either. A defensive TD is absolutely live here — and that favors the underdog far more than the favorite.

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