Pinnacle   +120    BET365  +120   Sportsinteraction  +120  888port  +120

Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

 Washington +120 over Miami

9:30 AM ET. The NFL heads to Spain for the first time ever, and we’ll gladly take the points with the team no one wants. When a franchise loses five straight, allows nearly 36 points per game, and starts Marcus Mariota on a neutral field against the “explosive” Dolphins, the public flocks to Miami like it’s free money. That’s when we step in.

Washington’s stock is radioactive — exactly how we like it. The Commanders’ defense has been shredded, sure, but the market continues to price their offense like a bottom-tier unit. It isn’t. Mariota quietly ranked third in EPA per dropback last week, trailing only Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. That wasn’t a garbage-time fluke. He’s distributing efficiently, avoiding turnovers, and running a functional offense despite missing multiple starters. He may not be flashy, but he’s competent — and competent QBs catching points in neutral-site games often cash.

Miami’s defense gets all the love after holding Buffalo to 13, yet that’s a dangerous mirage. The Dolphins have allowed 26.4 points per game in five road contests and are just 1-4 straight-up away from home. Their pass rush fades on neutral surfaces, their tackling breaks down outside humidity, and they’ve shown little consistency against mobile quarterbacks. Spain’s slick, dry turf isn’t South Beach, and Tyreek Hill’s track meet routine may lose a step on European grass.

As for game flow — don’t expect Miami to cruise. This is an Over setup with fireworks potential. Washington can move the ball, and Miami’s defense is nowhere near as dominant when the crowd isn’t wearing teal. If you believe the Commanders’ losing streak defines them, you’ll lay the points. If you believe in market correction, you’ll grab them.

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