Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 11

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 2

NFL Week 11

 

Washington +2½ over Miami

9:30 AM ET. The NFL heads to Spain for the first time ever, and we’ll gladly take the points with the team no one wants. When a franchise loses five straight, allows nearly 36 points per game, and starts Marcus Mariota on a neutral field against the “explosive” Dolphins, the public flocks to Miami like it’s free money. That’s when we step in.

Washington’s stock is radioactive — exactly how we like it. The Commanders’ defense has been shredded, sure, but the market continues to price their offense like a bottom-tier unit. It isn’t. Mariota quietly ranked third in EPA per dropback last week, trailing only Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. That wasn’t a garbage-time fluke. He’s distributing efficiently, avoiding turnovers, and running a functional offense despite missing multiple starters. He may not be flashy, but he’s competent — and competent QBs catching points in neutral-site games often cash.

Miami’s defense gets all the love after holding Buffalo to 13, yet that’s a dangerous mirage. The Dolphins have allowed 26.4 points per game in five road contests and are just 1-4 straight-up away from home. Their pass rush fades on neutral surfaces, their tackling breaks down outside humidity, and they’ve shown little consistency against mobile quarterbacks. Spain’s slick, dry turf isn’t South Beach, and Tyreek Hill’s track meet routine may lose a step on European grass.

As for game flow — don’t expect Miami to cruise. This is an Over setup with fireworks potential. Washington can move the ball, and Miami’s defense is nowhere near as dominant when the crowd isn’t wearing teal. If you believe the Commanders’ losing streak defines them, you’ll lay the points. If you believe in market correction, you’ll grab them. Recommendation: Washington +2½

Green Bay -7½ over N.Y. Giants

1:00 PM ET. This is one of those lines the market hates but the matchup absolutely demands. Everyone remembers the Giants shocking the Packers in London as a +7½ pooch in 2022, then doing it again last year as a +5½ home dog. Recency bias bleeds slowly, and the books know it. That’s why you're seeing reluctance to price the Giants properly — as a bottom-five roster with a backup QB, an interim coach, and a talent pool held together with duct tape and prayer.

The Giants have dropped four straight, fired Brian Daboll on Monday, and blew a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead in Chicago once Jaxson Dart left with a concussion. With today’s protocol, the idea of Dart clearing in time is fantasy. And even if he does, do you really want a rookie coming off multiple hard shots walking into Micah Parsons & Co.? This is the same defense that’s been hunting quarterbacks like it’s ritual sport.

The fallback plan isn’t much safer. Russell Wilson took over after Dart went down, and the Giants’ next three drives produced seven total yards. Earlier this year with Wilson starting, the offense didn’t find the end zone against Kansas City or Washington — and that was with Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, and Darius Slayton all healthy, plus an actual head coach. Those guys are now hurt, unavailable, or ineffective. What’s left is a skeleton crew expected to keep pace with Jordan Love and Green Bay’s offense? That’s not happening.

Green Bay hasn’t been a covering machine — failing to cash in six of its last seven — but that’s exactly why the price is cheap. Monday’s loss to Philadelphia is masking the reality: the Packers are still structured to beat up on bad quarterbacks and overmatched lines. Wink Martindale’s defense can scratch and claw only so long before the field position battle caves in.

The total sits in the mid-40s, and it’s difficult to imagine where New York contributes enough to threaten it. If the Giants can’t score, the favorite covers — and covers comfortably. Green Bay -7½

Tampa Bay +5½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. This number feels like it was hung on reputation, not reality. Buffalo hasn’t been a trustworthy home favorite for well over a year, and the market keeps pretending the Bills are still the bully they were in 2021. They’re not. Since October 2023, Buffalo is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite, and 0-3 in that role this season. When the Bills are priced as comfortable chalk, they almost never reward you.

The last meeting between these two came in October 2023, when Tampa walked into Orchard Park as a double-digit dog and stayed well within the number in a 24-18 loss. That game was a preview of what’s happening now: Tampa Bay tends to make teams uncomfortable, and Buffalo tends to leave the back door open.

Both teams are coming off sloppy losses in the Sunshine State — Buffalo got handled by Miami and Tampa face-planted at home against New England. The difference is that Tampa’s profile is stable while Buffalo’s is not. The Bills have been baffling analysts all season with their insistence on running the ball almost half the time. Buffalo is running it on 49% of snaps — second-most in the NFL. You have Josh Allen, the league’s most dangerous off-script quarterback, and somehow you’re calling plays like you’re protecting Zach Wilson.

It gets worse.

Dalton Kincaid, arguably their most important matchup weapon, is out for multiple weeks. Without him, Buffalo is left throwing to guys who don’t threaten defenses vertically. That’s a huge problem against a Tampa Bay defense that sits No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed. If the Bills want to run early-down handoffs into a wall, Todd Bowles will happily oblige.

The total trending under only strengthens the underdog. Four of Buffalo’s last five have stayed under, and four of Tampa’s last five road games have stayed under. Lower total → higher value on the dog. This is the textbook setup.

Baker Mayfield will take some risks — that’s baked into the price — but as long as he’s not gifting Buffalo extra possessions, the Bucs are live here. Buffalo plays slow, plays conservative, and hasn’t put anyone away at home in months. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +5½

Cincinnati +6½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. This line is pure fantasy — a number hung as if Pittsburgh is some reliable, margin-winning operation instead of a team that’s dropped three of four and just got handled on Sunday night. The market keeps treating the Steelers like a heavyweight when they haven’t knocked out anybody all year.

The underdog has covered four straight in this rivalry. Earlier this season Cincinnati closed +5½ at home, hung 33 points, and beat Pittsburgh 33-31 behind Joe Flacco throwing for 342 yards and Chase Brown ripping off 108 yards on 11 carries. That wasn’t a fluke. Pittsburgh’s defense has been living off name value for two seasons and coordinators have figured out how to stress them horizontally.

Now we’re catching nearly a touchdown with the exact same matchup? Wrong team inflated, wrong number.

Cincinnati comes out of the bye with a pulse and, more importantly, with motivation. Jay Glazer reported Joe Burrow is ahead of schedule and could return in about two weeks. The locker room knows it. A win here puts Cincinnati just one game back in the AFC North. There’s plenty of oxygen left for a late-season charge if they hold serve.

The problem — and it’s a big one — is the Bengals’ defense. Trey Hendrickson still isn’t practicing, they’re bottom-five in sack rate, and they couldn’t touch Aaron Rodgers in the first meeting. The blueprint for disrupting Rodgers is out there — the Chargers just executed it perfectly — but Cincinnati does not have the personnel to replicate it.

Which means this almost certainly becomes the same script as October:

You’re not stopping Pittsburgh — you’re out-scoring them.

The over is 4-0-1 in Cincinnati’s last five games for a reason. Their defense is optional and their offense, when allowed to play with tempo, is plenty capable of trading blows. Flacco can sling it, Brown can run it, and the Bengals’ wideout group is deep enough to stress a Steelers secondary that has been torched repeatedly this year.

Pittsburgh shouldn’t be spotting 6½ to almost anybody right now, let alone a divisional opponent with a history of giving them fits. Recommendation: Cincinnati +6½

Tennessee +6 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The market is pricing this like Tennessee is already eliminated from the league, never mind the playoff race. Houston has earned the right to be respected — 5-1 SU/ATS in the last six meetings, including that 26-0 beatdown in Week 4 — but this number is inflated because everyone remembers the score and not the game.

Houston didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that matchup. The box score says “26-0.” The film says “ugly rock fight where Tennessee’s offense couldn’t execute anything.” Cam Ward threw for 108 yards on 10-of-26 passing, the Titans managed 175 total yards and 10 first downs, and yet the Texans didn’t exactly run away with it until garbage time. That’s important context — it means this is not some unstoppable mismatch; it’s a struggling rookie QB versus a top-10 defense that capitalized on a perfect script.

Now the market wants you to believe Houston should lay nearly a full touchdown on the road. That’s a different universe than catching Tennessee in a freefall at home.

The Titans come out of the bye with one advantage: rest and prep. Are they suddenly “good”? No. But these are the pockets where bad teams punch above their weight — especially at home, where Tennessee has been a disaster (1-11 SU/ATS since last year), but where you do get an inflated line because the market has completely quit on them. That’s where we buy ugly.

Houston’s offense looked sharp with Davis Mills in relief (412 yards, 27 first downs, 6.0 YPP against Jacksonville), but let’s not pretend consistency has ever been Mills’ calling card. If CJ Stroud is ruled in, you’ll see this number balloon. If he’s out again, Mills’ stock drops instantly. Either way, the Texans as road chalk is not a profile we’re rushing to lay.

Tennessee’s defense has been leaking oil — their last three games all went over because opponents hung 32 points per game on them — but you don’t need a Titans win. You just need them to not get blown off their own field after two weeks to reset. Bad teams off a bye are often undervalued because the public assumes “nothing changes.” In reality, small structural tweaks make them incrementally more competitive, and that’s all we need.

Cam Ward will still look like a rookie. The reinforcements aren’t walking through that door. The interim staff isn’t coaching for their jobs; they’re coaching for their résumés. Yet somehow, this is exactly the kind of spot where the ugly dog bites.

Minnesota -3 over Chicago

1:00 PM ET. If you’re only box-score shopping, Chicago looks like a team on the rise. Six wins in seven games, a young quarterback settling in, late-game heroics, good vibes everywhere. That’s the brochure version. The fine print — the stuff the market keeps ignoring — tells a very different story.

Minnesota has won eight of the last nine meetings, including the 27–24 win at Soldier Field to open the season. That was with J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start in a hostile environment. Now he’s more seasoned, more stable, and playing behind a staff that’s quietly been elite at self-scouting after a bye… and the Vikings had theirs just three weeks ago. Fresh legs in November are gold.

Chicago’s 6–3 record is built on the NFL equivalent of optical illusions. They were down 20–10 to the Giants before Jaxson Dart was knocked out of the game. They survived Cincinnati only because they hit a 58-yard prayer with 20 seconds left. They beat Washington on a walk-off. They needed a last-minute blocked field goal to escape Vegas. That is not sustainable football — it’s a Jenga tower waiting for one wrong pull.

The Bears still carry a negative point differential, which is one of the market’s biggest red flags for regression. Against any team with a pulse, they’ve been flattened — losing their three “step-up” games by an average of 16 points. That’s who they are when the music stops.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has been stuck in dome-ball for a month. They haven’t taken a snap in real cold weather since mid-September, so they come into this with fresh legs, not frozen ones. Chicago has been slugging through November football; the Vikings are stepping into it with healthier bodies and a defense far better at containing non-mobile QBs than the highlight reels suggest.

This is the ideal “pull the curtain back” spot — buy the undervalued favorite, sell the overinflated underdog coming off a month of fortunate bounces.

Chicago’s record says contender.

Chicago’s profile says pretender.

Minnesota has been waiting to punch someone in the mouth, and the Bears’ run of magic-bean outcomes is ripe to collapse under its own luck. Recommendation: Minnesota -3

Atlanta +6 over Carolina

1:00 PM. This one has “hold your nose and take the points” written all over it, and that’s exactly why we’re interested. The market is treating Carolina like a functioning favorite again, which is wild when you consider what the Panthers have actually put on tape the last month. They’ve scored 45 total points in four weeks — five touchdowns, that’s it — yet we’re being asked to spot nearly a touchdown with an offense operating at preseason speed.

Yes, Carolina has pulled a few upsets in this series, including the bizarre 30–0 win back in Week 3. But let’s not rewrite history. The Panthers produced 224 yards that day. Atlanta missed two kicks and turned it over three times inside scoring range. That wasn’t dominance — it was charity. It was a game the Falcons handed away with a bow on it.

Now both teams limp into this one in full identity crisis. Atlanta just returned from Berlin and — bafflingly — chose not to take the bye. That decision has been instant death for the handful of teams who’ve done it. Cleveland scored nine in their post-London game. The Jets scored six. Denver didn’t score for three quarters before garbage-time chaos arrived. That’s 11 straight quarters of completely lifeless offense for teams who tried the “nah, we’re good” approach after flying across the Atlantic.

This is a horrible scheduling spot for the Falcons, especially for an offense that’s already sputtering.

Carolina isn’t in much better shape. They were a 5.5-point home favorite last week and scored seven points. Their last month looks like a bingo card of stalled drives and empty possessions. And now we’re supposed to lay nearly a TD with them? With this version of Bryce Young?

Tennessee is no prize either, but they’re off a bye, which matters here. When everyone else is crawling to the finish line in November, rest is a currency the market still undervalues. The Titans’ coaching staff might not be auditioning for long-term contracts, but they at least had two full weeks to scheme some life into Cam Ward.

Neither quarterback is playing with confidence. Neither offense is reliable. But only one team is being priced like they’ve earned trust — and that team absolutely hasn’t. Recommendation Atlanta +6

Jacksonville +3 over LA Chargers 

1:00 PM ET. The market is doing what the market always does after a prime-time blowout: it chases ghosts. The Chargers embarrassed Pittsburgh on Sunday night, so suddenly they’re being priced like a stable, properly-built football team that doesn’t melt down the moment something goes wrong. That’s an overreaction we’re thrilled to fade.

Los Angeles is now laying a full field goal against a Jacksonville team coming off a gut-punch collapse, which is exactly where the value shows up. When you lose a game twice — once on the field and then again in the market — you buy low. This is buy-low 101.

Jacksonville blew a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to a backup QB. Liam Coen walked off the field looking like he wanted to personally unplug the scoreboard. Now the Jags are being punished again, getting bumped to a +3 because Harbaugh’s crew feasted on an absolute corpse of a Steelers offense.

That’s not analysis. That’s recency bias with a fresh coat of paint. Let’s break it down:

? The Chargers are still a structural mess up front.

You can’t sugarcoat it: LA is missing bodies everywhere on the offensive line. Harbaugh can rah-rah his way through that against Pittsburgh’s lifeless pass rush, but this is still an O-line that has been losing the line of scrimmage all season.

? Jacksonville is dead last in sack rate… which is exactly why this number is inflated.

Everyone sees that stat and assumes LA will coast. That’s not how this works. Pass rush is a volatility metric — it swings week to week based on opponent and script. The Chargers’ line has been leaking for two months. You don’t fix that in six days. This is the first time in a month Jacksonville’s front can dictate through disguise rather than relying on talent alone.

- The Chargers’ defense was on the field for only 22 minutes last week.

Good for them. They basically played a preseason workload. That only adds fuel to the narrative that LA is surging and Jacksonville is collapsing — and that’s where the market loses the plot.

If Jacksonville holds onto that 19-point lead, this line is Chargers -1.5, tops. The result swung perception, not reality.

- Jacksonville has beaten this team outright twice in a row.

This matchup has been friendly to them. Tempo, spacing, and Lawrence’s quick-game rhythm all stress the soft spots of the Chargers’ zone looks.

- Finally, yes — mental stability matters.

Everyone trusts Harbaugh’s culture, and no one trusts the Jags’. But that’s why you’re catching the key number instead of laying it. Jacksonville isn’t the picture of emotional wellness, but they’re absolutely capable of going toe-to-toe with a Chargers team that’s being valued like they’ve solved all their problems overnight.

This is a classic “sell the Sunday night darling, buy the team the public refuses to forgive.” Recommendation: Jacksonville +3

Seattle +3 over LA Rams

4:05 PM ET. The market keeps waiting for the Sam Darnold pumpkin moment, but all he keeps doing is slicing secondaries like a vegetable chef on speed. Seattle has won-and-covered every road game they’ve played, they’ve won-and-covered four straight overall, and they’re catching a field goal against a team on equal footing. That’s value. That’s actionable. That’s a bet.

The Rams have covered eight of the last nine in this rivalry, and that trend is getting blasted everywhere this week — but peel back the layers and the matchup is much tighter than those ATS records suggest. These meetings have been trench wars, not track meets. Take away last year’s meaningless Week 18, and four straight stayed under, including two trips to overtime that STILL didn’t hit the number. When games play this tight, the points matter — especially when you’re catching the better situational side.

Let’s get to the meat:

- Seattle travels extremely well.

4–0 ATS on the road. No luck, no fluke — their offensive structure doesn’t shrink outdoors or indoors, and the defense has been far more disciplined away from home.

- Darnold is not regressing — he’s ascending.

He’s No. 1 in QBR, No. 1 in passing success rate, top-3 in completion percentage and passer rating, and he leads the NFL at 9.9 yards per attempt. That’s a full yard ahead of No. 2 (Drake Maye). These aren’t helium numbers inflated by YAC merchants. Seattle is scheming explosives, creating layups, and converting both.

Two losses all year — both blown inside two minutes. Seattle has played 480 minutes of football and trailed for maybe 20 of them.

- The Rams are good… but not at this price.

They’ve played sharp, they’re well-coached, and last week’s win over San Francisco was legit. But this is a different kind of test. Seattle’s offensive balance destroys teams that rely on front-four pressure, and LA’s depth has already taken hits.

- When two teams look equal, grab the better quarterback in the better form.

That’s Darnold. Yes, you read that correctly, and yes, the numbers back it up.

With both teams on a heater, the public does the obvious thing — they default to the home favorite. Not us. We’re backing the more explosive offense, the cleaner quarterback play, and the road team that has punched above its weight in every venue they’ve walked into. Recommendation: Seattle +3

Cleveland +7½ over Baltimore

4:25 PM ET. This number is inflated, and it’s inflated for all the wrong reasons. Baltimore is getting priced as if last week’s win over Minnesota was a vintage Lamar masterpiece. It wasn’t even close. The Ravens generated 14 first downs the last time these teams met, lived off two Cleveland turnovers (including a scoop-and-score), and still got out-gained by 80 yards. The scoreboard said 41-17 — the box score said “fraudulent result.” When you see that kind of disconnect, you file it away, and when the market hands you +7.5 in the rematch, you attack.

Baltimore has won-and-covered three straight, so the public is lining up. Cleveland has dropped five of six and looks broken offensively, so the public is sprinting the other way. That’s usually where value lives. The Browns’ defense remains absolutely elite — New York managed 12 first downs last week and basically needed two special-teams touchdowns in the first quarter just to look functional. Remove the fluky stuff and the Browns’ defensive profile still travels, still smothers, and still forces long fields.

Lamar Jackson remains the wildcard, and not in a good way. His hamstring recovery isn’t where the market thinks it is. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per attempt against Minnesota despite the benefit of extra rest. That’s not a fully mobile Lamar — that’s a limited version walking into an AFC North street fight against one of the league’s most aggressive fronts.

Cleveland’s offense is the obvious sore spot, but Gabriel doesn’t have to be good — he just has to not lose the game. As long as the Browns avoid the catastrophe plays that buried them in Week 2, they’re live within this number. Defenses have loaded the box on Quinshon Judkins all month because they don’t respect Gabriel’s arm, but that’s baked into the current line. We’re not being asked to win — we’re being asked to stay inside a margin that Baltimore hasn’t earned. Recommendation: Cleveland +7½

Detroit +2½ over Philadelphia

8:15 PM ET. Philadelphia has ripped off three straight wins, looks shiny in the standings, and Lincoln Financial Field has been a tough place to walk into since last season. That’s the surface-level handicap — the one books know the public will lean on. But peel back one layer and the cracks show fast. The Eagles’ offense is running 7.5 fewer plays per game than last year, their O-line is an injury carousel (Jurgens out, Lane Johnson carted off), and they’re being priced as if those issues don’t materially impact the offense’s floor. They do — especially when you’re laying points.

Detroit walks in banged up themselves, but this is the same Lions team that pushes back every time the market fades them. Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, and Graham Glasgow all leaving recent games is the headline, but the real story is Dan Campbell taking over the play calling and immediately injecting rhythm, aggression, and tempo back into the offense. Anyone can call plays against Washington’s disaster of a defense, sure — but the trust gained internally matters. You could feel the energy shift.

We’re also dealing with the wrong kind of November spot for Philadelphia. You’re asking a compromised O-line to block Aidan Hutchinson and a rested Detroit front for 60 minutes in cold, windy mid-November weather. That’s not where you want to be laying more than a field goal — yet the market opened close to that anyway.

Here’s the buried value:

The Eagles are 1–3 ATS when laying 4+ this season, and that trend exists for a reason. When asked to win comfortably, the cracks in their offensive rhythm show. Detroit, meanwhile, has been a high-variance but live dog all season. Goff outdoors is the narrative everyone falls back on, but he has outperformed that trope enough times that it no longer carries real weight — not when the Lions’ run game, play-action packages, and role-player depth travel this well.

Philadelphia is a good team with a shrinking margin for error. Detroit is a dangerous, pissed-off underdog with a more stable offense than the injury report suggests and a matchup advantage against the Eagles’ compromised front. Recommendation: Detroit +2½