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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +4 over Baltimore

1:00 PM ET. The market’s overreacting to Baltimore’s blowout win in Miami, a game that says more about the Dolphins’ dysfunction than it does about the Ravens’ resurgence. Lamar Jackson looked sharp, sure, but that was on extended rest and against a defense that lost its shape midway through the second quarter. Now the Ravens head indoors to a loud, unfamiliar stadium to face a team that’s quietly trending up. Minnesota’s played just one home game since mid-September, and the fan base will be in full throat.

Minnesota’s win last week in Detroit was no fluke. The Vikings went into Ford Field as a 9½-point underdog and left with a 27-24 victory. That’s the kind of result that flips a locker room’s belief. J.J. McCarthy is settling in quickly — poised, mobile, and unafraid to push the ball downfield. He’s not perfect, but the kid competes, and he’s operating behind a line that should handle Baltimore’s front. The Ravens rank near the bottom of the league in sack rate, which means McCarthy will have time to find Justin Jefferson and work the short game with motion and play-action.

Baltimore’s defense lives off chaos, not consistency. When they’re not generating pressure, they get leaky in coverage and vulnerable against the run. The Vikings’ offensive balance will test that, especially with Jefferson healthy and Andrew Van Ginkel back hunting on defense. Minnesota’s front seven doesn’t have to contain Jackson entirely — just limit his explosive runs and force him to sustain drives through the air.

This game sets up as a perfect storm for the home dog. Baltimore’s riding high after two straight wins, while Minnesota’s still being priced like the team that stumbled early without its quarterback. The Ravens have to fly north into a noise pit against a team that’s covered four straight at home versus AFC opponents.

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