Pinnacle    +130     BET365  +130   Sportsinteraction  +130  888port  +130

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New England +130 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. There’s a quiet arrogance creeping into Tampa’s market price, and that’s usually the first crack in the dam. The Bucs have been a good story at 6-2, but they’ve built that record by feasting on bad teams and catching the rest at the right time. Now they come off a bye, laying points against a battle-tested New England team that hasn’t blinked once on the road.

The Patriots are 4-0 straight-up and against the number away from home this season, and all they do is punch the clock, defend, and out-coach the opposition. Mike Vrabel has his team playing mistake-free, opportunistic football, and the market still hasn’t caught up. Drake Maye has been nothing short of steady in his first full year under center — 74% completions, 17 TDs, four picks — all behind an offensive line that’s been reshuffled a dozen times. The kid never panics, and his situational awareness improves weekly.

Tampa’s defense has numbers that look impressive until you realize how many bad offensive lines they’ve faced. They’re elite against the run, but that’s fine — New England doesn’t want to run anyway. This is a game tailor-made for Maye to throw 40 times and pick apart Tampa’s soft zones with motion, pace, and short-area accuracy. Vrabel isn’t going to run his head into a wall. He’ll adjust, as always.

Meanwhile, Tampa’s offense continues to be held together by duct tape. Baker Mayfield is gutting through knee and oblique issues, the run game remains non-existent, and now Chris Godwin Jr. may miss another week. Without Bucky Irving, the Bucs are 24th in rushing, meaning every drive depends on Baker’s arm — and that’s not a formula you want when your quarterback is banged up and facing a defense that disguises blitzes as well as anyone in the league.

The Patriots have been on the field for ten straight weeks, and the market wants to frame that as fatigue. We see it as rhythm. They’re playing with purpose, chemistry, and growing confidence. Tampa, on the other hand, is the team that could come out flat after a week of back-patting and press clippings about how “healthy” they are.

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