Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 10

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 2

NFL Week 10

 

Atlanta +6½ over Indianapolis

 

9:30 AM ET. You’ll hear all week about the Colts’ shiny new toy in Sauce Gardner, their “league-best offense,” and their return to Europe, where they beat New England two years ago. What’s not being discussed enough is that this number is off by a couple of points, and the market’s reaction to Indy’s hot start is overcooked.

 

This will be the first-ever NFL game played in Berlin, which matters only because these international games almost always turn into slogs. The four games in Germany over the last three years have averaged 31 points total, with none cracking 37. These fields are slower, the travel is brutal, and the rhythm of a normal NFL week disappears. Every single one of those factors benefits the underdog.

 

The Colts are being priced like they’re playing at Lucas Oil, but this isn’t a dome. Seven of Indy’s first eight games were indoors, and when they went outdoors in Pittsburgh last week, they coughed up six turnovers and their running game fell flat (3.1 yards per carry). Now they travel across the Atlantic on a short turnaround, while trying to integrate a new defensive star into a complex scheme.

 

Atlanta’s recent skid looks bad on paper, but they’ve been in every game. They outplayed New England between the 20s before a missed extra point cost them. Michael Penix and Drake London are starting to find rhythm, and if Bijan Robinson gets even a modest bounce-back, this is a team built to chew clock and shorten games — a perfect recipe for catching points in a low-total setting. Recommendation: Atlanta +6½

 

 

Miami +9½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. Buffalo’s dominance over Miami spans seven straight wins and almost a decade of control, but every streak has its expiration date. The market is hanging a near double-digit tag on the Bills here, and that’s too big for a team that rarely covers these inflated prices. Since October 2023, Buffalo is just 6-10 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. They’re often the right side to win but the wrong side to cover.

The Dolphins are in disarray — fired their GM, dealing with a shredded receiving corps, and down to spare parts on both sides of the ball. That’s all baked into this number, maybe even exaggerated. Tua’s best receiver last week was running back De’Von Achane, and while that paints a bleak picture, it also creates a low-expectation environment where any spark looks better than it is.

Buffalo has bigger fish to fry after this — a home date with Tampa Bay followed by a short-week trip to Houston. That makes this a classic “get in, get out” spot for the Bills. They can jump out early, drain the clock, and preserve bodies for what’s ahead. Their last four games have averaged under 45 points combined, all trending toward slower-paced, lower-risk wins.

Miami hung inside the number as a double-digit road dog in Buffalo earlier this season, tied in the fourth quarter before fading late. That was with more talent than they have now, but the point here isn’t about the Dolphins being good — it’s about Buffalo being overvalued. The Bills’ defense remains solid, though not dominant, and their injury report is piling up. If James Cook sits or is limited, that offense loses its rhythm.

This number assumes a clean, no-sweat win for a Bills team that’s been anything but consistent. The Dolphins are likely to look more competent here than they did in last week’s 28-6 loss to Baltimore, mostly because regression toward effort and pride is inevitable. Ugly underdogs are often the most profitable ones, and this is as ugly as they come. Recommendation: Miami +9½

Jacksonville -1 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. This AFC South rivalry has been a grinder for years, and everything about the number reflects that. Six of the last seven meetings have stayed under the total, and four straight have been decided by one score. That’s a lot of tight, mistake-filled football — and the market is once again expecting more of the same. The thing is, the Jags are built to handle that style better right now.

Houston’s in a tricky spot. This is their third straight home game, and after splitting a win over San Francisco with a loss to Denver, the offense still looks disjointed. More importantly, C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion, which forces Davis Mills into his first start in nearly two years. Mills knows the playbook, sure, but this is not a soft landing spot. Jacksonville has quietly become one of the league’s most disruptive defenses away from home, forcing turnovers in bunches and holding opponents to 18 points or fewer in four of five road games.

The Texans’ issues go deeper than quarterback. Their injury report is a war zone — multiple starters across the offensive line, defensive front, and secondary all banged up or missing time. That’s not the kind of attrition a thin roster survives easily. Houston has also been one of the league’s least efficient red-zone offenses, and losing Stroud’s poise there could be glaring.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, showed guts last week in Vegas. They rallied from two scores down to win in overtime, leaning on a physical run game and Trevor Lawrence’s mobility. Despite missing key receivers, they found production from depth pieces and just added Jakobi Meyers to stabilize the passing attack. The Jags’ locker room is buying back in, and a win here gives them control of the division again. Recommendation: Jacksonville -1

San Francisco +4½ over L.A. Rams

4:25 PM ET. The Rams have been one of the better stories in the NFC so far — rejuvenated quarterback, explosive offense, and a confident head coach in rhythm again. Yet when you strip away the headlines and look at the actual market context, this line makes no sense. The Rams are being priced like a top-three NFC team, while the 49ers — still loaded with talent, healthier than they’ve been in weeks, and playing with confidence — are catching over a field goal in a divisional game. That’s value.

This is a familiar dance between these two. San Francisco’s 26-23 overtime win earlier this season broke a string of Rams covers, but the game script showed how evenly matched these rosters remain. The 49ers went up 14-0 early, got dragged into a trench war, then found the answers late. That’s exactly what Kyle Shanahan’s teams do — they grind, adjust, and play situationally smart football.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been walking a tightrope. Both of their losses came on drives that stalled deep in enemy territory, and that’s a red flag when you’re being asked to lay more than a field goal. Matthew Stafford’s been excellent, but he’s also been forced to play nearly perfect to mask issues with protection and short-yardage execution. Even with Puka Nacua expected to play, the Rams’ offense is heavily dependent on Stafford’s precision, and that’s tough to sustain every week — especially against a divisional opponent that knows his tells. Recommendation: San Francisco 

Pittsburgh +2½ over L.A. Chargers

8:15 PM ER. This number doesn’t make sense on paper, and that’s exactly why we’re interested. The Chargers are riding a two-game win streak and playing at home, while the Steelers are a flawed 5-3 team with an aging quarterback and an inconsistent offense. Yet L.A. laying points here assumes their offensive efficiency hasn’t fallen off a cliff — and it has.

Losing Joe Alt is a massive deal. You can’t overstate it. Since last season, the Chargers’ passing DVOA drops twenty spots when he’s off the field, and their EPA per dropback freefalls from elite to near-bottom tier. Justin Herbert is still capable of brilliance, but when he’s under pressure — which he will be here — he starts to short-arm throws and check down early. Pittsburgh’s defensive front thrives on that exact scenario. The Steelers forced six turnovers last week against Indianapolis, and while that’s unsustainable, the pressure they bring off the edge is very real.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been steady — and that’s all Pittsburgh really needs with this defense. They can control tempo, shorten the game, and give themselves a chance late. The market narrative has flipped too far: the Steelers’ offense looked pedestrian despite all those turnovers last week, so now bettors are rushing to fade them. That’s when you buy low. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +2½