Pinnacle    +9 -110     BET365  +9 -110   Sportsinteraction  +9 -110  888port  +9 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegas +9 over Denver

8:15 PM ET. The Broncos have won six straight, sit at 7-2, and could become the first team in the NFL to hit eight wins. They’ve rallied from behind four different times, including last week’s fourth-quarter comeback in Houston. Bo Nix is getting headlines for being “clutch,” Sean Payton’s being called a genius again, and Denver’s defense is being praised for its “bend-but-don’t-break” attitude. It’s a nice story, but the line here doesn’t add up.

The market is treating Denver like an elite team when they’ve done little to earn that status. The Broncos have squeaked past the Titans, Jets, Texans, and Giants—four of the weakest offensive teams in the league. They were dead in the water for three quarters against Philly and needed a collapse to steal that one too. This current run has been a house of cards built on variance, timely turnovers, and opponents handing them points.

Now they’re spotting close to double digits in a divisional game against a Raiders team that’s been far more competitive than its record suggests. Las Vegas could easily have three or four wins if not for a few bounces and a failed two-point conversion last week against Jacksonville. They’ve been in every game, they’re moving the ball better under Chip Kelly, and Brock Bowers has become a legitimate matchup nightmare.

Denver’s defense has played above its head for a month, but with Patrick Surtain II and multiple starters banged up, regression is coming. The Broncos aren’t good enough to be laying this kind of lumber against anyone, let alone a division rival with a knack for hanging around. Raiders outright would not surprise us one bit.

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