Pinnacle   -7½ -110   BET365   -7½ -110  Sportsinteraction  -7½ -110  888port  -7½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore -7½ over Miami

Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL

8:15 PM ET. Baltimore’s -7½ tag on the road might look steep to the market, but it makes perfect sense once you strip away the noise. Miami’s coming off a “get-right” win over Atlanta that looks better on paper than it was in reality. The Falcons are an outright mess, and the Dolphins’ 34-10 win is more illusion than statement. Now they’re stepping up in weight against a Ravens side that finally showed signs of waking up last week — and the books aren’t fooled by one soft win from Miami.

The Ravens were left for dead after that four-game skid, but even through the losses, the structure was there. They were moving the ball between the 20s; they just weren’t finishing drives. That changed last Sunday. Tyler Huntley managed the offense, the line held up, and the Ravens’ defense suffocated Chicago. Now Lamar Jackson is back, and his return shifts everything. The market knows it, which is why this number opened heavy and never blinked.

Miami’s offensive performance last week isn’t sustainable against a defense like Baltimore’s. The Dolphins’ line has been leaky all season, and they’re now missing bodies in the secondary as well. When Miami faces physicality, the speed advantage they live off tends to vanish. They rely on rhythm and space — both of which disappear against the Ravens’ pass rush and disguised coverages. Baltimore doesn’t chase; they dictate.

The chatter will be about Tua’s bounce-back game and how the Dolphins “found something,” but that’s just narrative talk. There’s no running game to lean on, and their defense is one of the most inconsistent units in the league. They were able to tee off on Desmond Ridder and the Falcons’ anemic playbook. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are an entirely different test.

This is a game where the number is doing the talking. Miami backers will see +7½ and think the books hung a mistake. There’s no mistake. There’s a gap in class, and the oddsmakers know it. Baltimore is healthier, deeper, and tougher — and if they bring even 80% of the intensity they showed last week, they’ll bury a fragile Miami team that’s living off one good Sunday.

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